TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Jakub Chmielowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171188111113711
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 3–1 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:45What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1610 vs Chmielowski 1628
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 40% vs Chmielowski 60%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 60% vs Chmielowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk -1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 2.00 / Chmielowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13169063
Staszczyk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Chmielowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStaszczyk3wins
AwayChmielowski1wins
4 of 4 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayChmielowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk3Chmielowski1n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
S2Staszczyk3Chmielowski1n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
S3Staszczyk1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
S4Staszczyk1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
S5Staszczyk3Chmielowski1n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaszczykChmielowskiS − CBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match47.045.5+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 368 vs 349 / 72157.3%48.4%211 / 368 vs 349 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiStaszczyk 2.00/Chmielowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 10 · 19:15K. Staszczyk45111139113J. Chmielowski4568111192
WSep 9 · 23:45K. Staszczyk539111110123J. Chmielowski46117612102
WMay 16 · 19:30K. Staszczyk47117711113J. Chmielowski4791111792
LMay 15 · 17:25K. Staszczyk4311117862J. Chmielowski44561111113
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek2.0011811113K. Staszczyk1.73411771WSep 21 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5712911123K. Kostyk2.2510118101LSep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.001112113K. Staszczyk1.7381050LSep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski3.75116711113K. Staszczyk1.2581111552WSep 18 · 23:35M. Woskowicz4.00691181K. Staszczyk1.2211114113WSep 18 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.2011118113M. Lukaszewski4.33461161LSep 18 · 22:05P. Blocho2.25811812113K. Staszczyk1.57117111002WSep 18 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.22611611153B. Sulkowski4.00118116132WSep 18 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.3311116113M. Woskowicz3.25591171WSep 18 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.17711116113P. Maruszak4.5011591172
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
J. Chmielowski
Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 22:10J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 22:55J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 23 · 24:35J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——
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