TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Chmielowski vs Jacek Mitas 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116117117––
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 56.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 4–2 Jacek Mitas Jacek Mitas has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mitas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1606 vs Mitas 1645
Mitas
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Mitas 100%
Mitas
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 60% vs Mitas 80%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -1 · Mitas +8
Mitas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.83 / Mitas 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170796
Chmielowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Mitas1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChmielowski4wins
AwayMitas2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderChmielowski leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski75%3 of 4
AwayMitasn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Mitas2n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S2Chmielowski4Mitas2n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S3Chmielowski3Mitas3n = 6split evenly
S4Chmielowski2Mitas3n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChmielowskiMitasC − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.834.7+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 720 vs 117 / 25148.3%46.6%348 / 720 vs 117 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.83/Mitas 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 21 · 21:25J. Chmielowski34861191J. Mitas3611113113
WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski43411116113J. Mitas3711541162
LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski351161171J. Mitas3941113113
WSep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski341112113J. Mitas2781090
WJun 26 · 09:45J. Chmielowski44111111113J. Mitas37781391
WJun 25 · 10:30J. Chmielowski3711114113J. Mitas32851181
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113
J. Mitas10
WSep 22 · 15:25M. Minda2.507630J. Mitas1.501111113WSep 22 · 24:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.361111123K. Kostyk3.0097100WSep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.001112113K. Staszczyk1.7381050WSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.205370J. Mitas1.611111113WSep 21 · 19:15J. Mitas1.501111113M. Minda2.504850WSep 21 · 18:05P. Blocho2.2539100J. Mitas1.571111123LSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek2.0011114113J. Mitas1.73951161
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