TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Minda vs Jakub Chmielowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Minda
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611511111––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Minda above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 65 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 67.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Michal Minda 2–5 Jakub Chmielowski Michal Minda has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1415 vs Chmielowski 1643
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 228 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 0% vs Chmielowski 60%
Chmielowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 20% vs Chmielowski 70%
Chmielowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -5 · Chmielowski +2
Minda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 2.25 / Chmielowski 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Chmielowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170363
Minda2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 134 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 95
Chmielowski1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 123 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it92% 56 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it73% 97 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMinda2wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderChmielowski leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMindan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmielowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda2Chmielowski5n = 7Chmielowski took 5 of 7
S2Minda2Chmielowski5n = 7Chmielowski took 5 of 7
S3Minda4Chmielowski3n = 7Minda took 4 of 7
S4Minda0Chmielowski4n = 4Chmielowski took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMindaChmielowskiM − CBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match31.338.1−6.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1014 / 1982 vs 350 / 72251.2%48.5%1014 / 1982 vs 350 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiMinda 2.25/Chmielowski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 20:05M. Minda345811101J. Chmielowski4111117123
WJul 20 · 08:30M. Minda341112113J. Chmielowski2681080
WJul 20 · 06:00M. Minda47511119113J. Chmielowski4111771152
LJul 9 · 14:15M. Minda206590J. Chmielowski331111113
LAug 17 · 16:40M. Minda28561161J. Chmielowski4211119113
LJul 4 · 13:55M. Minda351910151J. Chmielowski51171211113
LJul 4 · 06:55M. Minda215970J. Chmielowski331111113
M. Minda10
LSep 22 · 17:20M. Minda1.918940K. Rudomina1.801111113LSep 22 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.731112911113M. Minda2.00131011542LSep 22 · 15:25M. Minda2.507630J. Mitas1.501111113LSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101LSep 21 · 19:15J. Mitas1.501111113M. Minda2.504850WSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek1.805690M. Minda1.911111113LSep 21 · 16:30P. Blocho1.6712116113M. Minda2.101041171WSep 21 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.8071111842M. Minda1.91117811113LSep 20 · 14:10G. Kesik1.83117811113M. Minda1.8351111292LSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113WSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Minda
Sep 22 · 19:40M. Minda1.83P. Blocho1.83—Sep 23 · 09:00M. Minda—A. Szoltysek——Sep 23 · 10:35M. Minda—M. Zwolinski——Sep 23 · 11:25M. Minda—W. Iwasyszyn——Sep 23 · 13:30M. Minda—R. Stapor——Sep 23 · 14:20M. Minda—J. Zochniak——Sep 23 · 15:45M. Minda—K. Klocek——Sep 23 · 16:55M. Minda—K. Staszczyk——Sep 23 · 17:40M. Minda—D. Solilo——Sep 23 · 18:30M. Minda—A. Daniel——
J. Chmielowski
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