TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Mitas vs Jakub Chmielowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11781110121151012
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 56.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 2–5 Jakub Chmielowski Jacek Mitas has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Chmielowski beat Mitas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1665 vs Chmielowski 1656
Mitas
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 80% vs Chmielowski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 90% vs Chmielowski 70%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +3 · Chmielowski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 1.83 / Chmielowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170785
Mitas1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Chmielowski1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMitas2wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderChmielowski leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas33.3%1 of 3
AwayChmielowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas3Chmielowski4n = 7Chmielowski took 4 of 7
S2Mitas2Chmielowski5n = 7Chmielowski took 5 of 7
S3Mitas3Chmielowski4n = 7Chmielowski took 4 of 7
S4Mitas3Chmielowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMitasChmielowskiM − CBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match34.138.1−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 255 vs 352 / 72447.1%48.6%120 / 255 vs 352 / 724Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiMitas 1.83/Chmielowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 22 · 16:55J. Mitas31116771J. Chmielowski4071111113
WSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas3611113113J. Chmielowski34861191
LSep 21 · 16:55J. Mitas3711541162J. Chmielowski43411116113
WSep 10 · 21:25J. Mitas3941113113J. Chmielowski351161171
LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2781090J. Chmielowski341112113
LJun 26 · 09:45J. Mitas37781391J. Chmielowski44111111113
LJun 25 · 10:30J. Mitas32851181J. Chmielowski3711114113
J. Mitas10
WSep 22 · 21:50J. Mitas1.9111913123K. Staszczyk1.8051111101WSep 22 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.91871161J. Mitas1.8011117113WSep 22 · 19:15J. Mitas1.531111113K. Rudomina2.385650WSep 22 · 18:05P. Blocho2.759860J. Mitas1.401111113LSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771WSep 22 · 15:25M. Minda2.507630J. Mitas1.501111113WSep 22 · 24:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.361111123K. Kostyk3.0097100WSep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.001112113K. Staszczyk1.7381050WSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.441111153K. Rudomina2.6355130WSep 22 · 18:30M. Minda2.25116511J. Chmielowski1.5791111113WSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113WSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101
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