TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Jakub Chmielowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12106116111191214
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 102 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 57.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 3–3 Jakub Chmielowski Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:48What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1561 vs Chmielowski 1700
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 0% vs Chmielowski 100%
Chmielowski
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 30% vs Chmielowski 80%
Chmielowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk -5 · Chmielowski +7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.83 / Chmielowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13171473
Staszczyk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Chmielowski1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStaszczyk3wins
AwayChmielowski3wins
6 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 6 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk40%2 of 5
AwayChmielowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk5Chmielowski1n = 6Staszczyk took 5 of 6
S2Staszczyk4Chmielowski2n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S3Staszczyk1Chmielowski5n = 6Chmielowski took 5 of 6
S4Staszczyk2Chmielowski4n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S5Staszczyk3Chmielowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStaszczykChmielowskiS − CBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match47.247.8−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 373 vs 356 / 72856.6%48.9%211 / 373 vs 356 / 728Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiStaszczyk 1.83/Chmielowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 23 · 24:35K. Staszczyk47126611122J. Chmielowski551011119143
LSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk48111181172J. Chmielowski50781113113
WSep 10 · 19:15K. Staszczyk45111139113J. Chmielowski4568111192
WSep 9 · 23:45K. Staszczyk539111110123J. Chmielowski46117612102
WMay 16 · 19:30K. Staszczyk47117711113J. Chmielowski4791111792
LMay 15 · 17:25K. Staszczyk4311117862J. Chmielowski44561111113
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 22 · 23:45K. Rudomina2.501311113K. Staszczyk1.5011970LSep 22 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5312870L. Pietraszko2.381411113LSep 22 · 21:50J. Mitas1.9111913123K. Staszczyk1.8051111101LSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek2.0011811113K. Staszczyk1.73411771WSep 21 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5712911123K. Kostyk2.2510118101LSep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.001112113K. Staszczyk1.7381050LSep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski3.75116711113K. Staszczyk1.2581111552WSep 18 · 23:35M. Woskowicz4.00691181K. Staszczyk1.2211114113WSep 18 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.2011118113M. Lukaszewski4.33461161
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 22 · 22:55K. Rudomina2.63711131172J. Chmielowski1.44118157113WSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113WSep 22 · 21:25J. Mitas1.831181011102J. Chmielowski1.83711125123WSep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.441111153K. Rudomina2.6355130WSep 22 · 18:30M. Minda2.25116511J. Chmielowski1.5791111113WSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113WSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
Sep 23 · 15:25K. Staszczyk—A. Daniel——Sep 23 · 16:55K. Staszczyk—M. Minda——Sep 23 · 18:05K. Staszczyk—K. Klocek——Sep 23 · 19:15K. Staszczyk—B. Sulkowski——Sep 23 · 20:30K. Staszczyk—D. Solilo——Sep 23 · 21:00K. Staszczyk—K. Rudomina——Sep 23 · 22:10K. Staszczyk—K. Klocek——Sep 23 · 22:35K. Staszczyk—K. Kapik——Sep 23 · 23:20K. Staszczyk—D. Solilo——
J. Chmielowski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.