TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Horky vs Vlastimil Kaisler 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
141611313111210––
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Horky above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 90 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jakub Horky at 62.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Horky 2–1 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5362.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Horky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horky 1465 vs Kaisler 1271
Horky
Correct
both rated, 194 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horky 80% vs Kaisler 60%
Horky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horky 80% vs Kaisler 40%
Horky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horky +1 · Kaisler -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Horky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaisler form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorky 1.50 / Kaisler 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Horky)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273928
Horky1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 32 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Kaisler2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 10 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHorky2wins
AwayKaisler1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderHorky leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horky2Kaisler1n = 3Horky took 2 of 3
S2Horky2Kaisler1n = 3Horky took 2 of 3
S3Horky2Kaisler1n = 3Horky took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHorkyKaislerH − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.036.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorkyKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 159 vs 106 / 23852.8%44.5%84 / 159 vs 106 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyHorky 1.50/Kaisler 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky4211771252V. Kaisler474111110113
WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky331111113V. Kaisler199550
WJun 27 · 20:35J. Horky45611116113V. Kaisler4411491192
J. Horky10
WOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153
V. Kaisler10
LOct 10 · 14:35P. Pesout1.5711127113V. Kaisler2.259101191LOct 7 · 17:33V. Kaisler2.009650L. Vana1.731111113LOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113WOct 7 · 15:05L. Vana1.401111111192V. Kaisler2.75138813113WOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101
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