TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Pesout vs Vlastimil Kaisler 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191210711119––
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Petr Pesout at 60.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 4–2 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3360.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Pesout
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1382 vs Kaisler 1271
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 80% vs Kaisler 60%
Pesout
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 60% vs Kaisler 40%
Pesout
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout +4 · Kaisler -2
Pesout
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pesout) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaisler form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.571 / Kaisler 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pesout)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273404
Pesout1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Kaisler2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 10 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePesout4wins
AwayKaisler2wins
4 of 6 to a deciderPesout leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesout75%3 of 4
AwayKaislern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout4Kaisler2n = 6Pesout took 4 of 6
S2Pesout2Kaisler4n = 6Kaisler took 4 of 6
S3Pesout4Kaisler2n = 6Pesout took 4 of 6
S4Pesout4Kaisler1n = 5Pesout took 4 of 5
S5Pesout2Kaisler2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPesoutKaislerP − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match46.342.2+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 369 vs 106 / 23846.3%44.5%171 / 369 vs 106 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.57/Kaisler 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout4711981182V. Kaisler45811114113
WJun 24 · 13:10P. Pesout331111113V. Kaisler198290
WJun 24 · 12:35P. Pesout44111111113V. Kaisler37713981
LMay 8 · 10:35P. Pesout50812111182V. Kaisler52111479113
WApr 13 · 17:35P. Pesout531211154113V. Kaisler51146131172
WApr 13 · 16:05P. Pesout511271011113V. Kaisler49101112972
P. Pesout10
WOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113WOct 8 · 15:35J. Vranca2.25117981P. Pesout1.5771111113WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113LOct 7 · 16:05L. Vana1.671111133P. Pesout2.1067110WOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113WOct 5 · 17:18J. Vranca—8650P. Pesout—1111113LOct 5 · 15:05J. Manhal Jr1.531111113P. Pesout2.388690
V. Kaisler10
LOct 10 · 15:05J. Horky1.50141113123V. Kaisler2.5016311101LOct 7 · 17:33V. Kaisler2.009650L. Vana1.731111113LOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113WOct 7 · 15:05L. Vana1.401111111192V. Kaisler2.75138813113WOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101
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