TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Pesout vs Vlastimil Kaisler 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911811114811
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Petr Pesout at 54.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 4–1 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2054.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 16.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Pesout
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1377 vs Kaisler 1265
Pesout
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 60% vs Kaisler 40%
Pesout
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 50% vs Kaisler 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout +1 · Kaisler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Pesout) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.40 / Kaisler 2.75
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Pesout)-16.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258183
Pesout1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 18 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Kaisler2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 45 days ago (Aug 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog25% won 8 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back21% 5 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePesout4wins
AwayKaisler1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPesout leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesout100%3 of 3
AwayKaislern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout3Kaisler2n = 5Pesout took 3 of 5
S2Pesout2Kaisler3n = 5Kaisler took 3 of 5
S3Pesout4Kaisler1n = 5Pesout took 4 of 5
S4Pesout3Kaisler1n = 4Pesout took 3 of 4
S5Pesout2Kaisler1n = 3Pesout took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPesoutKaislerP − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match46.241.6+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 361 vs 104 / 23446%44.4%166 / 361 vs 104 / 234Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.40/Kaisler 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaisler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 24 · 13:10P. Pesout331111113V. Kaisler198290
WJun 24 · 12:35P. Pesout44111111113V. Kaisler37713981
LMay 8 · 10:35P. Pesout50812111182V. Kaisler52111479113
WApr 13 · 17:35P. Pesout531211154113V. Kaisler51146131172
WApr 13 · 16:05P. Pesout511271011113V. Kaisler49101112972
P. Pesout10
LOct 7 · 16:05L. Vana1.671111133P. Pesout2.1067110WOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113WOct 5 · 17:18J. Vranca—8650P. Pesout—1111113LOct 5 · 15:05J. Manhal Jr1.531111113P. Pesout2.388690WOct 5 · 14:35L. Vosyka1.44119581P. Pesout2.6371111113LSep 27 · 13:45M. Chmelicek1.781415113P. Pesout1.93121390WSep 27 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.57111511992P. Pesout2.25317911113WSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.73681111113P. Pesout2.0011114692WSep 26 · 17:05J. Martin1.331012791P. Pesout3.25121011113
V. Kaisler10
LOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113WOct 7 · 15:05L. Vana1.401111111192V. Kaisler2.75138813113WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111151R. Jaros1.7311139113WAug 22 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.50111014762V. Kaisler2.508121211113LAug 22 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.83119511113V. Kaisler1.8391111762
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