TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477960
Played Aug 23Finished
Vlastimil Kaisler
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8118111210118911
Radim Jaros
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Jaros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVlastimil Kaisler above · Radim Jaros below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Radim Jaros at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vlastimil Kaisler 0–2 Radim Jaros Vlastimil Kaisler has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jaros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kaisler 1259 vs Jaros 1256
Kaisler
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaisler 20% vs Jaros 40%
Jaros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaisler 20% vs Jaros 40%
Jaros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaisler -2 · Jaros +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jaros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jaros form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaisler 1.91 / Jaros 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jaros)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12477960
Kaisler1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 12 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Jaros1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKaisler0wins
AwayJaros2wins
Jaros leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKaislerJarosK − JBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match21.540.5−19.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaislerJarosBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 230 vs 91 / 22944.4%39.7%102 / 230 vs 91 / 229Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarosKaisler 1.91/Jaros 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jaros · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jaros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 13:10V. Kaisler—141101R. Jaros—11119113
LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler—3111121R. Jaros—1113963
V. Kaisler10
WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111121R. Jaros1.731113963WAug 22 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.50111014762V. Kaisler2.508121211113LAug 22 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.83119511113V. Kaisler1.8391111762LJun 28 · 17:10R. Hruby—11811113V. Kaisler—511941WJun 28 · 16:05M. Flesar1.41112119102V. Kaisler2.55611711123LJun 28 · 15:35R. Hruby1.901111113V. Kaisler1.749930
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750WAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101WAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111121R. Jaros1.731113963
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