TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475557
Played Aug 22Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111114911110––
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeVlastimil Kaisler to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-0
Point 58 set 4, 11-0 — our read held Vlastimil Kaisler at 55.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Radim Jaros 2–0 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaisler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1256 vs Kaisler 1259
Kaisler
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 20% vs Kaisler 40%
Kaisler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 30% vs Kaisler 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros +1 · Kaisler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaisler) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaisler form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 1.91 / Kaisler 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaisler)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12475557
Jaros1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Kaisler1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 13 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it64% 7 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJaros2wins
AwayKaisler0wins
Jaros leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJarosKaislerJ − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.521.5+19.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 229 vs 102 / 23039.7%44.4%91 / 229 vs 102 / 230Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaislerJaros 1.91/Kaisler 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kaisler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jaros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros—11119113V. Kaisler—141101
WAug 22 · 12:35R. Jaros—1113963V. Kaisler—3111121
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
V. Kaisler10
WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111121R. Jaros1.731113963WAug 22 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.50111014762V. Kaisler2.508121211113LAug 22 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.83119511113V. Kaisler1.8391111762LJun 28 · 17:10R. Hruby—11811113V. Kaisler—511941WJun 28 · 16:05M. Flesar1.41112119102V. Kaisler2.55611711123LJun 28 · 15:35R. Hruby1.901111113V. Kaisler1.749930
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