TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472967
Played Aug 22Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11810121412711611
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 102 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 62.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 3–0 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1403 vs Kaisler 1282
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Kaisler 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 80% vs Kaisler 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +1 · Kaisler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaisler form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.50 / Kaisler 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12472967
Chmelicek1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 55 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it66% 42 of 64
Kaisler2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 12 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayKaisler0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderChmelicek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek100%3 of 3
AwayKaislern = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek3Kaisler0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
S2Chmelicek3Kaisler0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
S3Chmelicek0Kaisler3n = 3Kaisler took 3 of 3
S4Chmelicek2Kaisler1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmelicekKaislerC − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match46.732.7+14.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 425 vs 101 / 22646.6%44.7%198 / 425 vs 101 / 226Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.50/Kaisler 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaisler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 7 · 15:35M. Chmelicek—11119113V. Kaisler—461161
WMay 10 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—111112113V. Kaisler—341471
WMay 10 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—1111911113V. Kaisler—78111342
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
V. Kaisler10
WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111121R. Jaros1.731113963LAug 22 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.83119511113V. Kaisler1.8391111762LJun 28 · 17:10R. Hruby—11811113V. Kaisler—511941WJun 28 · 16:05M. Flesar1.41112119102V. Kaisler2.55611711123LJun 28 · 15:35R. Hruby1.901111113V. Kaisler1.749930
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