TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12473708
Played Aug 22Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911511117116
Vlastimil Kaisler
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Vlastimil Kaisler below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 3–1 Vlastimil Kaisler Vlastimil Kaisler has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kaisler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Cyrus
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrus 1301 vs Kaisler 1282
Cyrus
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrus 60% vs Kaisler 20%
Cyrus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrus 40% vs Kaisler 20%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrus -1 · Kaisler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaisler form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 1.83 / Kaisler 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cyrus)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12473708
Cyrus1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kaisler1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCyrus3wins
AwayKaisler1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderCyrus leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrusn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKaisler33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus1Kaisler3n = 4Kaisler took 3 of 4
S2Cyrus4Kaisler0n = 4Cyrus took 4 of 4
S3Cyrus2Kaisler2n = 4split evenly
S4Cyrus2Kaisler1n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCyrusKaislerC − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match40.235.0+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusKaislerBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 168 vs 101 / 22644.6%44.7%75 / 168 vs 101 / 226Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrusCyrus 1.83/Kaisler 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cyrus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 13 · 17:15M. Cyrus—1111113V. Kaisler—5610
WMay 13 · 16:35M. Cyrus—111211113V. Kaisler—1310541
LJan 18 · 12:35M. Cyrus—2111061V. Kaisler—11912113
WDec 30 · 13:05M. Cyrus—511811193V. Kaisler—117117172
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821
V. Kaisler10
WAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113LAug 23 · 12:35V. Kaisler1.9188121192R. Jaros1.801111108113LAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:35M. Cyrus1.71441171V. Kaisler2.0011117113LAug 22 · 13:10R. Jaros1.9111119113V. Kaisler1.80141101LAug 22 · 12:35V. Kaisler2.003111121R. Jaros1.731113963WAug 22 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.50111014762V. Kaisler2.508121211113LJun 28 · 17:10R. Hruby—11811113V. Kaisler—511941WJun 28 · 16:05M. Flesar1.41112119102V. Kaisler2.55611711123LJun 28 · 15:35R. Hruby1.901111113V. Kaisler1.749930
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