TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Horky vs Petr Pesout 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118114811113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Horky above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 86 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Jakub Horky at 55.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Horky 4–7 Petr Pesout Jakub Horky has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0355.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Horky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Pesout
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horky 1448 vs Pesout 1400
Horky
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horky 80% vs Pesout 100%
Pesout
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horky 80% vs Pesout 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horky +2 · Pesout +6
Pesout
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Horky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorky 1.666 / Pesout 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Horky)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273946
Horky1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 32 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Pesout2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 43 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorky4wins
AwayPesout6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorky60%3 of 5
AwayPesout80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horky5Pesout5n = 10split evenly
S2Horky7Pesout3n = 10Horky took 7 of 10
S3Horky4Pesout6n = 10Pesout took 6 of 10
S4Horky5Pesout5n = 10split evenly
S5Horky1Pesout4n = 5Pesout took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorkyPesoutH − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.643.4−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorkyPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 160 vs 173 / 37153.1%46.6%85 / 160 vs 173 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyHorky 1.67/Pesout 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 25 · 17:35J. Horky4611119782P. Pesout49971111113
WMay 25 · 14:35J. Horky4291111113P. Pesout34119681
WMay 2 · 14:35J. Horky44111111113P. Pesout32941361
LApr 4 · 14:35J. Horky49811116132P. Pesout53118811153
WMar 14 · 14:45J. Horky531110811133P. Pesout48512119112
LMar 14 · 13:35J. Horky4111118382P. Pesout46491111113
LFeb 28 · 16:35J. Horky27721171P. Pesout3911116113
WFeb 6 · 18:40J. Horky4712915113P. Pesout3910111351
LFeb 6 · 16:05J. Horky50101171392P. Pesout521271111113
LJan 14 · 14:15J. Horky27311581P. Pesout4211911113
J. Horky10
WOct 10 · 15:05J. Horky1.50141113123V. Kaisler2.5016311101WOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153
P. Pesout10
WOct 10 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.10119581P. Pesout1.6791111113WOct 10 · 14:35P. Pesout1.5711127113V. Kaisler2.259101191WOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113WOct 8 · 15:35J. Vranca2.25117981P. Pesout1.5771111113WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113LOct 7 · 16:05L. Vana1.671111133P. Pesout2.1067110WOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113
Upcoming Matches
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P. Pesout
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