TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Mezlik vs Petr Pesout 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911511811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Mezlik above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-4
Point 65 set 4, 5-4 · our read held Petr Pesout at 56.6%
65 points drawn · the score is 10 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Simon Mezlik 1–3 Petr Pesout Simon Mezlik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3456.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Pesout
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezlik 1309 vs Pesout 1391
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezlik 40% vs Pesout 100%
Pesout
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezlik 40% vs Pesout 70%
Pesout
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezlik -2 · Pesout +5
Pesout
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Pesout) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezlik 2.10 / Pesout 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Pesout)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273945
Mezlik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 4 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Pesout1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMezlik1wins
AwayPesout3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderPesout leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezlik33.3%1 of 3
AwayPesoutn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezlik3Pesout1n = 4Mezlik took 3 of 4
S2Mezlik2Pesout2n = 4split evenly
S3Mezlik2Pesout2n = 4split evenly
S4Mezlik1Pesout2n = 3Pesout took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMezlikPesoutM − PBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.041.2−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezlikPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 20 vs 172 / 37035%46.5%7 / 20 vs 172 / 370Avg sets wonper match1.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match31.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutMezlik 2.10/Pesout 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 8 · 17:40S. Mezlik38815961P. Pesout46111311113
LOct 8 · 14:35S. Mezlik4613711782P. Pesout531111911113
WOct 7 · 17:04S. Mezlik361411113P. Pesout2612770
LOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik4411871172P. Pesout40411113113
S. Mezlik10
WOct 10 · 16:35V. Kaisler2.2531190S. Mezlik1.571113113LOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:35S. Mezlik1.57611119113J. Vranca2.2511661162WOct 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.7351350S. Mezlik2.001115113LOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782WOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113WOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113LOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:05L. Vana1.331111113S. Mezlik3.256960
P. Pesout10
LOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 14:35P. Pesout1.5711127113V. Kaisler2.259101191WOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113WOct 8 · 15:35J. Vranca2.25117981P. Pesout1.5771111113WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113LOct 7 · 16:05L. Vana1.671111133P. Pesout2.1067110WOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113
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