TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Simon Mezlik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111315511––––
Simon Mezlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Simon Mezlik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 2–3 Simon Mezlik Martin Chmelicek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1355 vs Mezlik 1317
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 0% vs Mezlik 40%
Mezlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 30% vs Mezlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -6 · Mezlik +2
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.727 / Mezlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264125
Chmelicek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 69 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it71% 55 of 78
Mezlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 3 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChmelicek2wins
AwayMezlik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMezlik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMezlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek2Mezlik3n = 5Mezlik took 3 of 5
S2Chmelicek3Mezlik2n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S3Chmelicek4Mezlik1n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
S4Chmelicek1Mezlik3n = 4Mezlik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricChmelicekMezlikC − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.434.2+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 575 vs 5 / 1546.4%33.3%267 / 575 vs 5 / 15Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.429.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.73/Mezlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mezlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 4 · 09:09M. Chmelicek4011711113S. Mezlik31511871
LOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek4251111692S. Mezlik44119211113
LOct 3 · 21:10M. Chmelicek324117101S. Mezlik4011611123
LOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek25821141S. Mezlik4111118113
WOct 2 · 18:05M. Chmelicek331111113S. Mezlik153660
M. Chmelicek10
LOct 8 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.67111091132J. Vranca2.10512115113LOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151LOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123LOct 7 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.5011117113M. Chmelicek2.50371141LOct 4 · 17:33J. Lovl1.40311911113M. Chmelicek2.7511711562WOct 4 · 16:35M. Flesar1.535780M. Chmelicek2.381111113LOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.44691191M. Chmelicek2.6311117113WOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113
S. Mezlik10
LOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782WOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113WOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113LOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:05L. Vana1.331111113S. Mezlik3.256960LOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113WOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek1.3651111692S. Mezlik3.00119211113LOct 4 · 07:35S. Mezlik2.756410J. Martin1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:05R. Vavricka1.281111113S. Mezlik3.504880WOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101
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