TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Lovl vs Martin Chmelicek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311117911115116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6
85 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 4–1 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Lovl beat Chmelicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.40 / Chmelicek 2.75
TT Cup · #13244942
Lovl1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Chmelicek2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLovl4wins
AwayChmelicek1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLovl leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl66.7%2 of 3
AwayChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Chmelicek2n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
S2Lovl2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S3Lovl4Chmelicek1n = 5Lovl took 4 of 5
S4Lovl4Chmelicek1n = 5Lovl took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricLovlChmelicekL − CBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.639.6+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 372 vs 267 / 56952.4%46.9%195 / 372 vs 267 / 569Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.40/Chmelicek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 4 · 15:35J. Lovl4271112123M. Chmelicek3311210101
WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl50891111113M. Chmelicek4411117962
WSep 9 · 11:35J. Lovl4511913123M. Chmelicek3861111101
WJun 30 · 14:05J. Lovl4211119113M. Chmelicek34781181
LFeb 20 · 13:05J. Lovl3911411672M. Chmelicek49911711113
J. Lovl10
WOct 4 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.8314120J. Lovl1.831111143WOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 14:35J. Lovl1.501211113M. Flesar2.5010830WOct 1 · 13:14J. Lovl1.831311113R. Neterda1.8311560WOct 1 · 12:35J. Lovl1.837111211113R. Neterda1.83118101362LOct 1 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.001112113J. Lovl1.7361070LOct 1 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.83841111113J. Lovl1.8311113462LSep 29 · 13:08J. Lovl1.3371011101O. Pros3.2511128123LSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252WSep 29 · 11:35O. Pros2.758590J. Lovl1.401111113
M. Chmelicek10
WOct 4 · 16:35M. Flesar1.535780M. Chmelicek2.381111113LOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.44691191M. Chmelicek2.6311117113WOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113LOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek1.3651111692S. Mezlik3.00119211113LOct 4 · 07:05R. Vavricka1.7321111113M. Chmelicek2.00118951LOct 4 · 06:35J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.107490LOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101LOct 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.63111041192T. Motacek1.44512118113LOct 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.574111110112L. Vana2.25117512133
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