TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Simon Mezlik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119112611911
Simon Mezlik
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:32 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Simon Mezlik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Martin Chmelicek at 68.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–2 Simon Mezlik Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:3268.8%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 4.6pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1383 vs Mezlik 1244
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 0% vs Mezlik 20%
Mezlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 30% vs Mezlik 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -6 · Mezlik -2
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Chmelicek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.363 / Mezlik 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Chmelicek)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240709
Chmelicek1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 70 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it72% 56 of 78
Mezlik3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayMezlik2wins
Mezlik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek1Mezlik2n = 3Mezlik took 2 of 3
S2Chmelicek2Mezlik1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S3Chmelicek2Mezlik1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmelicekMezlikC − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.032.0−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 564 vs 2 / 946.8%22.2%264 / 564 vs 2 / 9Avg sets wonper match2.00.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.425.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.36/Mezlik 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mezlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 3 · 21:10M. Chmelicek324117101S. Mezlik4011611123
LOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek25821141S. Mezlik4111118113
WOct 2 · 18:05M. Chmelicek331111113S. Mezlik153660
M. Chmelicek10
WOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113LOct 4 · 07:05R. Vavricka1.7321111113M. Chmelicek2.00118951LOct 4 · 06:35J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.107490LOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101LOct 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.63111041192T. Motacek1.44512118113LOct 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.574111110112L. Vana2.25117512133LOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.30821141S. Mezlik3.4011118113WOct 2 · 21:34L. Vosyka1.50111981M. Chmelicek2.5011811113WOct 2 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.6331313133T. Motacek1.44111111111LOct 2 · 19:05M. Chmelicek2.50911851L. Vosyka1.5011911113
S. Mezlik10
LOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113LOct 4 · 07:35S. Mezlik2.756410J. Martin1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:05R. Vavricka1.281111113S. Mezlik3.504880WOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101LOct 3 · 20:35L. Vana1.5061111113S. Mezlik2.50119541LOct 3 · 19:35S. Mezlik3.00412981T. Motacek1.36111011113WOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.30821141S. Mezlik3.4011118113LOct 2 · 20:34L. Vosyka1.301111113S. Mezlik3.409650LOct 2 · 19:34S. Mezlik1.9112840T. Motacek1.801411113LOct 2 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—1111113S. Mezlik—3660
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