Martin Chmelicek vs Simon Mezlik 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT Cup

Played Oct 3Finished

Martin Chmelicek

Home

1.30

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

811211118411––

Simon Mezlik

Away

3.40

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

0–4Last 4Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%

Graded at full time

Martin Chmelicek to win

72.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Simon Mezlik below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 2-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 4-11

Point 66 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Martin Chmelicek at 72.3%

66 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:04

72.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30

short by 4.6pp

76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.30 (72%)

Chmelicek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Form (L5)

Chmelicek 80% vs Mezlik 0%

Chmelicek

Wrong

80pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chmelicek 50% vs Mezlik 0%

Chmelicek

Wrong

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Chmelicek +2 · Mezlik -4

Mezlik

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Chmelicek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mezlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChmelicek 1.30 / Mezlik 3.40

Signal prob.72% / 28%

Edge (Chmelicek)-4.6pp (anti-value)

TT Cup · #13237771

Chmelicek1.30

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite59% won 70 of 118

Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47

Up 1–0, closes it72% 56 of 78

Mezlik3.40

0%won 0 of 4 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

0%takes the first set · 0 of 3

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricChmelicekMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 557 vs 0 / 347.2%0%263 / 557 vs 0 / 3Avg sets wonper match2.01.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Chmelicek

Chmelicek 1.30/Mezlik 3.40

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

72.3%

Chmelicek · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Mezlik won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Chmelicek10