TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Martin Chmelicek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210811119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 10–5 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Motacek beat Chmelicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.44 / Chmelicek 2.63
TT Cup · #13212631
Motacek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 19 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Chmelicek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 72 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back16% 16 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMotacek8wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMotacek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotacek100%7 of 7
AwayChmelicek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek7Chmelicek3n = 10Motacek took 7 of 10
S2Motacek7Chmelicek3n = 10Motacek took 7 of 10
S3Motacek6Chmelicek4n = 10Motacek took 6 of 10
S4Motacek6Chmelicek1n = 7Motacek took 6 of 7
S5Motacek2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMotacekChmelicekM − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.632.8+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 63 vs 259 / 54954%47.2%34 / 63 vs 259 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 16:35T. Motacek46111212113M. Chmelicek325101431
WSep 27 · 12:05T. Motacek3911611113M. Chmelicek28511481
WSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek43113711113M. Chmelicek4371111772
WSep 26 · 14:35T. Motacek361411113M. Chmelicek2712870
LSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek4551111992M. Chmelicek45113911113
WSep 19 · 20:35T. Motacek485101111113M. Chmelicek3611124542
WSep 18 · 16:35T. Motacek4211119113M. Chmelicek34951191
WSep 12 · 12:35T. Motacek331111113M. Chmelicek204970
LSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek4171151172M. Chmelicek41117111113
WSep 6 · 11:05T. Motacek331111113M. Chmelicek226790
T. Motacek10
WSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113LSep 27 · 13:16R. Vavricka2.251113113T. Motacek1.5781190WSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113LSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113WSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772WSep 26 · 16:05J. Martin1.902460T. Motacek1.761111113WSep 26 · 15:35P. Pesout2.4011111882T. Motacek1.50651111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:05R. Neterda1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.203460LSep 28 · 14:35M. Flesar1.571713123M. Chmelicek2.251511100WSep 27 · 13:45M. Chmelicek1.781415113P. Pesout1.93121390LSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113WSep 27 · 11:05M. Chmelicek2.001111113R. Vavricka1.737790WSep 27 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.73681111113P. Pesout2.0011114692LSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772WSep 26 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.5711118123P. Pesout2.209711101WSep 26 · 15:05J. Martin1.7411511892M. Chmelicek1.95811411113
Upcoming Matches
T. Motacek
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M. Chmelicek
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