TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Tomas Motacek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511116411811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 67 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 61.2%
67 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 5–8 Tomas Motacek Martin Chmelicek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Motacek
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1488 vs Motacek 1473
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Motacek 60%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 60% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +2 · Motacek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Motacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.38 / Motacek 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Motacek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13202818
Chmelicek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 71 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back16% 16 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Motacek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayMotacek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMotacek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMotacek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek3Motacek7n = 10Motacek took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek3Motacek7n = 10Motacek took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek4Motacek6n = 10Motacek took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek3Motacek4n = 7Motacek took 4 of 7
S5Chmelicek3Motacek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekMotacekC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.341.0−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 544 vs 31 / 5847.4%53.5%258 / 544 vs 31 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekChmelicek 2.38/Motacek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 17:35M. Chmelicek4371111772T. Motacek43113711113
LSep 26 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2712870T. Motacek361411113
WSep 23 · 16:35M. Chmelicek45113911113T. Motacek4551111992
LSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek3611124542T. Motacek485101111113
LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek34951191T. Motacek4211119113
LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek204970T. Motacek331111113
WSep 9 · 15:35M. Chmelicek41117111113T. Motacek4171151172
LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek226790T. Motacek331111113
LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek46591111102T. Motacek49111196123
WAug 29 · 17:35M. Chmelicek49711911113T. Motacek4011511492
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 27 · 11:05M. Chmelicek2.001111113R. Vavricka1.737790WSep 27 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.73681111113P. Pesout2.0011114692LSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772WSep 26 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.5711118123P. Pesout2.209711101WSep 26 · 15:05J. Martin1.7411511892M. Chmelicek1.95811411113LSep 26 · 14:35T. Motacek1.801411113M. Chmelicek1.9112870LSep 24 · 21:33J. Martin1.739111111123M. Chmelicek2.00119513102WSep 24 · 20:35M. Rojka2.007560M. Chmelicek1.731111113LSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek1.91811721J. Martin1.8011311113WSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113
T. Motacek10
LSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113WSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772WSep 26 · 16:05J. Martin1.902460T. Motacek1.761111113WSep 26 · 15:35P. Pesout2.4011111882T. Motacek1.50651111113WSep 26 · 14:35T. Motacek1.801411113M. Chmelicek1.9112870LSep 25 · 17:38J. Jr1.671111113T. Motacek2.104750LSep 25 · 16:05J. Jr1.6191113113T. Motacek2.201171191WSep 25 · 15:35P. Pesout2.253111171T. Motacek1.5711713113WSep 25 · 14:35T. Motacek1.67571311113L. Vana2.10111111472
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