TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Martin Chmelicek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412118117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 6–5 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:07What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1450 vs Chmelicek 1471
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 40% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 40% vs Chmelicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek -2 · Chmelicek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Motacek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13199201
Motacek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 14 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Chmelicek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 24)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back15% 15 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMotacek5wins
AwayChmelicek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotacek80%4 of 5
AwayChmelicek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Motacek7Chmelicek3n = 10Motacek took 7 of 10
S3Motacek5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Motacek3Chmelicek4n = 7Chmelicek took 4 of 7
S5Motacek2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMotacekChmelicekM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.5+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 52 vs 254 / 53851.9%47.2%27 / 52 vs 254 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek4551111992M. Chmelicek45113911113
WSep 19 · 20:35T. Motacek485101111113M. Chmelicek3611124542
WSep 18 · 16:35T. Motacek4211119113M. Chmelicek34951191
WSep 12 · 12:35T. Motacek331111113M. Chmelicek204970
LSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek4171151172M. Chmelicek41117111113
WSep 6 · 11:05T. Motacek331111113M. Chmelicek226790
WSep 5 · 16:05T. Motacek49111196123M. Chmelicek46591111102
LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek4011511492M. Chmelicek49711911113
LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek428118151M. Chmelicek4811911173
LAug 28 · 18:35T. Motacek2239100M. Chmelicek341111123
T. Motacek10
WSep 26 · 15:35P. Pesout2.4011111882T. Motacek1.50651111113LSep 25 · 17:38J. Jr1.671111113T. Motacek2.104750LSep 25 · 16:05J. Jr1.6191113113T. Motacek2.201171191WSep 25 · 15:35P. Pesout2.253111171T. Motacek1.5711713113WSep 25 · 14:35T. Motacek1.67571311113L. Vana2.10111111472LSep 23 · 17:10T. Motacek1.83451171D. Hons1.8311119113LSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113LSep 23 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.83611711113T. Motacek1.8311911692WSep 23 · 14:35D. Hons1.73119111062T. Motacek2.00611512113LSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons1.80119511143T. Motacek1.91711118122
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 26 · 15:05J. Martin1.7411511892M. Chmelicek1.95811411113LSep 24 · 21:33J. Martin1.739111111123M. Chmelicek2.00119513102WSep 24 · 20:35M. Rojka2.007560M. Chmelicek1.731111113LSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek1.91811721J. Martin1.8011311113WSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113LSep 23 · 21:45J. Martin1.83111126113M. Chmelicek1.8399111192WSep 23 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.22119913113M. Jinek4.00811111192LSep 23 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.6151511113M. Chmelicek2.201113531WSep 23 · 18:35J. Martin1.80811111132M. Chmelicek1.91119813113WSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113
Upcoming Matches
T. Motacek
M. Chmelicek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.