TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Martin Chmelicek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111911511131210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 102 set 5, 12-10
102 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 4–4 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Martin beat Chmelicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Martin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Martin)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13192060
Martin1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Chmelicek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMartin4wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartin100%4 of 4
AwayChmelicek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin4Chmelicek4n = 8split evenly
S2Martin6Chmelicek2n = 8Martin took 6 of 8
S3Martin4Chmelicek4n = 8split evenly
S4Martin1Chmelicek4n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMartinChmelicekM − CBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match34.837.1−2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 104 vs 254 / 53753.9%47.3%56 / 104 vs 254 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 24 · 19:35J. Martin3611311113M. Chmelicek28811721
WSep 23 · 21:45J. Martin41111126113M. Chmelicek4999111192
LSep 23 · 18:35J. Martin44811111132M. Chmelicek52119813113
LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin2581070M. Chmelicek341112113
WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek235990
LAug 27 · 21:03J. Martin374111571M. Chmelicek4711817113
LAug 27 · 19:05J. Martin291116111M. Chmelicek4211711133
WAug 7 · 18:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek229670
J. Martin10
WSep 24 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.9112981162J. Martin1.801011116113WSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek1.91811721J. Martin1.8011311113WSep 24 · 18:35J. Martin1.671111113M. Rojka2.107350WSep 24 · 17:35R. Neterda1.83111291192J. Martin1.83614116113WSep 24 · 16:35J. Jr2.387790J. Martin1.531111113LSep 24 · 15:35J. Martin2.1012116742R. Neterda1.671041111113WSep 24 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.5314911121J. Martin2.3816114143WSep 23 · 21:45J. Martin1.83111126113M. Chmelicek1.8399111192WSep 23 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.809960J. Martin1.911111113WSep 23 · 19:35M. Jinek2.756116101J. Martin1.4011911123
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 24 · 20:35M. Rojka2.007560M. Chmelicek1.731111113LSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek1.91811721J. Martin1.8011311113WSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113LSep 23 · 21:45J. Martin1.83111126113M. Chmelicek1.8399111192WSep 23 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.22119913113M. Jinek4.00811111192LSep 23 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.6151511113M. Chmelicek2.201113531WSep 23 · 18:35J. Martin1.80811111132M. Chmelicek1.91119813113LSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113WSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek2.381111123D. Hons1.5399100
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