TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Martin Chmelicek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191181113311
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 96 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 2–3 Martin Chmelicek Jirasek Martin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:41What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1501 vs Chmelicek 1471
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 100% vs Chmelicek 80%
Martin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 50% vs Chmelicek 70%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin +5 · Chmelicek -1
Martin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Martin)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13182281
Martin1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Chmelicek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMartin2wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
Chmelicek leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S2Martin4Chmelicek1n = 5Martin took 4 of 5
S3Martin2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMartinChmelicekM − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.433.6−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 93 vs 250 / 53050.5%47.2%47 / 93 vs 250 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin2581070M. Chmelicek341112113
WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek235990
LAug 27 · 21:03J. Martin374111571M. Chmelicek4711817113
LAug 27 · 19:05J. Martin291116111M. Chmelicek4211711133
WAug 7 · 18:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek229670
J. Martin10
WSep 23 · 19:35M. Jinek2.756116101J. Martin1.4011911123WSep 21 · 21:35J. Martin1.86117118113L. Vosyka1.7491191182WSep 21 · 20:05J. Martin2.2011112123L. Vosyka1.617511101WSep 21 · 19:05J. Martin1.44111144133T. Krcil2.63951111112WSep 21 · 18:05J. Martin1.831111113M. Jinek1.837780WSep 20 · 17:14D. Hons1.6711551182J. Martin2.10511117113LSep 20 · 16:35R. Fnukal1.61116912113J. Martin2.20811111072LSep 20 · 15:35J. Martin2.7562100J. Lovl1.401111123LSep 20 · 14:05D. Hons1.73311118123J. Martin2.00115711102LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 23 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.6151511113M. Chmelicek2.201113531LSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113WSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek2.381111123D. Hons1.5399100WSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.301113113M. Jinek3.4061130WSep 22 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.5311551192M. Chmelicek2.38711119113WSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113WSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113
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