TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Richard Vavricka vs Martin Chmelicek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121010121113118511
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 103 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 55.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 9–3 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:41What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Vavricka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1475 vs Chmelicek 1466
Vavricka
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 20% vs Chmelicek 40%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 40% vs Chmelicek 70%
Chmelicek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -3 · Chmelicek -1
Vavricka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.67 / Chmelicek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Vavricka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13188147
Vavricka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 41 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Chmelicek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavricka8wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVavricka leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka2Chmelicek8n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S2Vavricka5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vavricka8Chmelicek2n = 10Vavricka took 8 of 10
S4Vavricka6Chmelicek3n = 9Vavricka took 6 of 9
S5Vavricka6Chmelicek1n = 7Vavricka took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavrickaChmelicekV − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.941.6+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 224 vs 252 / 53451.3%47.2%115 / 224 vs 252 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.67/Chmelicek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:35R. Vavricka331111113M. Chmelicek239860
WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka49711911113M. Chmelicek4311711592
WAug 3 · 19:05R. Vavricka48911116113M. Chmelicek4311871162
WJul 25 · 16:05R. Vavricka44111111113M. Chmelicek37138791
LJun 27 · 20:05R. Vavricka51711914102M. Chmelicek521161112123
WJun 20 · 18:35R. Vavricka501341111113M. Chmelicek4915118692
WMay 24 · 11:05R. Vavricka47116127113M. Chmelicek45811101152
LMay 2 · 19:05R. Vavricka35991161M. Chmelicek3611113113
WMar 28 · 20:05R. Vavricka43281111113M. Chmelicek4411116882
WFeb 28 · 20:35R. Vavricka49791111113M. Chmelicek4411114992
R. Vavricka10
LSep 24 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5791113892M. Rojka2.251161111113LSep 16 · 21:15R. Vavricka1.33751181R. Jonas3.2511119113LSep 16 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.91511611112L. Vosyka1.80118114133LSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113WSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.501111113R. Jonas2.506670LSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191WSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690WSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113LSep 13 · 09:40J. Jr2.101112113R. Vavricka1.6721060
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 23 · 21:45J. Martin1.83111126113M. Chmelicek1.8399111192WSep 23 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.22119913113M. Jinek4.00811111192LSep 23 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.6151511113M. Chmelicek2.201113531WSep 23 · 18:35J. Martin1.80811111132M. Chmelicek1.91119813113LSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113WSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek2.381111123D. Hons1.5399100WSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.301113113M. Jinek3.4061130
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