TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143174
Played Sep 16Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711511119811––
Roman Jonas
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 60.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 1–1 Roman Jonas Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vavricka beat Jonas 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1481 vs Jonas 1330
Vavricka
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 40% vs Jonas 20%
Vavricka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 50% vs Jonas 20%
Vavricka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -2 · Jonas -3
Jonas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jonas form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.33 / Jonas 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Vavricka)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13143174
Vavricka1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 40 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Jonas3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog8% won 1 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVavricka1wins
AwayJonas1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVavrickaJonasV − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.030.5+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 224 vs 35 / 8051.3%43.8%115 / 224 vs 35 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.33/Jonas 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 16 · 21:15R. Vavricka31751181R. Jonas4211119113
WSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka331111113R. Jonas196670
R. Vavricka10
LSep 16 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.91511611112L. Vosyka1.80118114133LSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113WSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.501111113R. Jonas2.506670LSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191WSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690WSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113LSep 13 · 09:40J. Jr2.101112113R. Vavricka1.6721060WSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113WSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113
R. Jonas10
LSep 16 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.0016811113R. Jonas1.731411891LSep 16 · 19:35R. Jonas2.63611791L. Vosyka1.4411511113LSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.501111113R. Jonas2.506670WSep 14 · 21:05M. Cyrus2.00331191R. Jonas1.7311117113LSep 14 · 20:35M. Rojka1.57111198113R. Jonas2.2544111192LSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113LSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113
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