TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Richard Vavricka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 55.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 4–9 Richard Vavricka Martin Chmelicek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Vavricka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1475 vs Vavricka 1451
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Vavricka 40%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Vavricka 30%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +1 · Vavricka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.00 / Vavricka 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Vavricka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13202849
Chmelicek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 71 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back16% 16 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Vavricka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 41 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayVavricka7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVavricka leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek28.6%2 of 7
AwayVavricka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek7Vavricka3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek5Vavricka5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmelicek3Vavricka7n = 10Vavricka took 7 of 10
S4Chmelicek3Vavricka6n = 9Vavricka took 6 of 9
S5Chmelicek2Vavricka5n = 7Vavricka took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekVavrickaC − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.644.9−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 543 vs 121 / 24047.3%50.4%257 / 543 vs 121 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaChmelicek 2.00/Vavricka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 18:05M. Chmelicek541012138113R. Vavricka491210111152
LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek239860R. Vavricka331111113
LSep 9 · 12:35M. Chmelicek4311711592R. Vavricka49711911113
LAug 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek4311871162R. Vavricka48911116113
LJul 25 · 16:05M. Chmelicek37138791R. Vavricka44111111113
WJun 27 · 20:05M. Chmelicek521161112123R. Vavricka51711914102
LJun 20 · 18:35M. Chmelicek4915118692R. Vavricka501341111113
LMay 24 · 11:05M. Chmelicek45811101152R. Vavricka47116127113
WMay 2 · 19:05M. Chmelicek3611113113R. Vavricka35991161
LMar 28 · 20:05M. Chmelicek4411116882R. Vavricka43281111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113WSep 27 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.73681111113P. Pesout2.0011114692LSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772WSep 26 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.5711118123P. Pesout2.209711101WSep 26 · 15:05J. Martin1.7411511892M. Chmelicek1.95811411113LSep 26 · 14:35T. Motacek1.801411113M. Chmelicek1.9112870LSep 24 · 21:33J. Martin1.739111111123M. Chmelicek2.00119513102WSep 24 · 20:35M. Rojka2.007560M. Chmelicek1.731111113LSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek1.91811721J. Martin1.8011311113WSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113LSep 27 · 09:10M. Flesar2.20111111113R. Vavricka1.61691361WSep 27 · 08:35K. Lahodny1.67119661R. Vavricka2.1071111113LSep 27 · 07:35R. Vavricka1.441011981M. Flesar2.6312811113LSep 27 · 06:05J. Lovl1.6111711113R. Vavricka2.20911781WSep 26 · 09:19D. Hons1.506940R. Vavricka2.501111113LSep 26 · 08:35J. Lovl1.611311118113R. Vavricka2.20116131152LSep 26 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.5061111832D. Hons1.50116611113WSep 26 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531111871R. Vavricka2.3891311113LSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113
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