TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Richard Vavricka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191113116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 8–11 Richard Vavricka Milan Flesar has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Flesar beat Vavricka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Vavricka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1490 vs Vavricka 1461
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Vavricka 40%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Vavricka 40%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Vavricka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.20 / Vavricka 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Flesar)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13205596
Flesar2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 51 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Vavricka1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 41 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayVavricka7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVavricka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%2 of 3
AwayVavricka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar3Vavricka7n = 10Vavricka took 7 of 10
S2Flesar5Vavricka5n = 10split evenly
S3Flesar6Vavricka4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Flesar2Vavricka5n = 7Vavricka took 5 of 7
S5Flesar1Vavricka3n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarVavrickaF − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.6−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 436 vs 121 / 23952.1%50.6%227 / 436 vs 121 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaFlesar 2.20/Vavricka 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 07:35M. Flesar4212811113R. Vavricka381011981
LSep 15 · 19:05M. Flesar33691171R. Vavricka4211119113
LAug 14 · 17:35M. Flesar248880R. Vavricka331111113
LAug 14 · 14:35M. Flesar2468100R. Vavricka341111123
LJun 20 · 21:40M. Flesar4791113862R. Vavricka511171111113
WJun 20 · 19:35M. Flesar45511126113R. Vavricka41116101132
LJun 13 · 21:15M. Flesar33911581R. Vavricka4111811113
LJun 13 · 18:35M. Flesar3721111672R. Vavricka43116411113
WMay 24 · 13:35M. Flesar331111113R. Vavricka228770
LMay 24 · 12:05M. Flesar45111041192R. Vavricka51812119113
M. Flesar10
LSep 27 · 08:05J. Lovl1.501111113M. Flesar2.509890WSep 27 · 07:35R. Vavricka1.441011981M. Flesar2.6312811113LSep 27 · 06:35M. Flesar1.6772111162K. Lahodny2.10111166113WSep 25 · 09:35M. Flesar3.251116123R. Neterda1.33514100WSep 25 · 08:35M. Flesar1.911111113M. Rojka1.809630WSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113LSep 25 · 06:35R. Neterda1.3371111113M. Flesar3.25114421WSep 24 · 09:35P. Chvatal1.539690M. Flesar2.381111113LSep 24 · 08:35M. Flesar2.388111171O. Pros1.5311513113WSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 27 · 08:35K. Lahodny1.67119661R. Vavricka2.1071111113LSep 27 · 07:35R. Vavricka1.441011981M. Flesar2.6312811113LSep 27 · 06:05J. Lovl1.6111711113R. Vavricka2.20911781WSep 26 · 09:19D. Hons1.506940R. Vavricka2.501111113LSep 26 · 08:35J. Lovl1.611311118113R. Vavricka2.20116131152LSep 26 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.5061111832D. Hons1.50116611113WSep 26 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531111871R. Vavricka2.3891311113LSep 25 · 21:39J. Kabelka2.25111197113R. Vavricka1.5789111172LSep 25 · 20:05J. Martin1.80115911113R. Vavricka1.9191111552WSep 25 · 19:35M. Jinek2.3811691162R. Vavricka1.53711116113
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