TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Kabelka vs Richard Vavricka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119911711117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 2–6 Richard Vavricka Jan Kabelka has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vavricka beat Kabelka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 2.25 / Vavricka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vavricka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13197263
Kabelka2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 52 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Vavricka1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 39 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKabelka2wins
AwayVavricka6wins
Vavricka leads 6–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka50%2 of 4
AwayVavricka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka4Vavricka4n = 8split evenly
S2Kabelka3Vavricka5n = 8Vavricka took 5 of 8
S3Kabelka1Vavricka7n = 8Vavricka took 7 of 8
S4Kabelka1Vavricka3n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricKabelkaVavrickaK − VBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match27.635.4−7.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 283 vs 118 / 23149.1%51.1%139 / 283 vs 118 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaKabelka 2.25/Vavricka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 25 · 18:35J. Kabelka331111741R. Vavricka4491311113
LAug 14 · 16:35J. Kabelka174490R. Vavricka331111113
WAug 3 · 20:05J. Kabelka331111113R. Vavricka218580
WJul 26 · 21:10J. Kabelka3911116113R. Vavricka36971191
LJul 26 · 18:05J. Kabelka28114941R. Vavricka3961111113
LJan 30 · 22:10J. Kabelka189540R. Vavricka331111113
LJan 30 · 21:35J. Kabelka311211621R. Vavricka4414811113
LDec 21 · 20:35J. Kabelka225890R. Vavricka331111113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 25 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.3613117113M. Jinek3.001191131WSep 25 · 19:05J. Martin1.574590J. Kabelka2.251111113LSep 25 · 18:35R. Vavricka1.6791311113J. Kabelka2.101111741LSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9151151192J. Kabelka1.80119114113WSep 22 · 19:35M. Jinek3.00961141J. Kabelka1.3611113113LSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113LSep 20 · 21:14J. Kabelka2.38116481R. Neterda1.5381111113LSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113WSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113
R. Vavricka10
LSep 25 · 20:05J. Martin1.80115911113R. Vavricka1.9191111552WSep 25 · 19:35M. Jinek2.3811691162R. Vavricka1.53711116113WSep 25 · 18:35R. Vavricka1.6791311113J. Kabelka2.101111741WSep 24 · 21:03M. Rojka1.73818551R. Vavricka2.00111611113LSep 24 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.9112981162J. Martin1.801011116113LSep 24 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5791113892M. Rojka2.251161111113LSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113LSep 16 · 21:15R. Vavricka1.33751181R. Jonas3.2511119113LSep 16 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.91511611112L. Vosyka1.80118114133LSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kabelka
Nothing scheduled
R. Vavricka
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