TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Richard Vavricka vs Jan Kabelka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111311117114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 5–2 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vavricka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Vavricka
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1454 vs Kabelka 1429
Vavricka
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 20% vs Kabelka 40%
Kabelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 30% vs Kabelka 60%
Kabelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka +1 · Kabelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.67 / Kabelka 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Vavricka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13193471
Vavricka1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 39 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Kabelka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 52 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVavricka5wins
AwayKabelka2wins
Vavricka leads 5–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka100%4 of 4
AwayKabelka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka4Kabelka3n = 7Vavricka took 4 of 7
S2Vavricka4Kabelka3n = 7Vavricka took 4 of 7
S3Vavricka6Kabelka1n = 7Vavricka took 6 of 7
S4Vavricka2Kabelka1n = 3Vavricka took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricVavrickaKabelkaV − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match34.126.9+7.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 228 vs 137 / 28050.9%48.9%116 / 228 vs 137 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.67/Kabelka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 14 · 16:35R. Vavricka331111113J. Kabelka174490
LAug 3 · 20:05R. Vavricka218580J. Kabelka331111113
LJul 26 · 21:10R. Vavricka36971191J. Kabelka3911116113
WJul 26 · 18:05R. Vavricka3961111113J. Kabelka28114941
WJan 30 · 22:10R. Vavricka331111113J. Kabelka189540
WJan 30 · 21:35R. Vavricka4414811113J. Kabelka311211621
WDec 21 · 20:35R. Vavricka331111113J. Kabelka225890
R. Vavricka10
WSep 25 · 19:35M. Jinek2.3811691162R. Vavricka1.53711116113WSep 24 · 21:03M. Rojka1.73818551R. Vavricka2.00111611113LSep 24 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.9112981162J. Martin1.801011116113LSep 24 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5791113892M. Rojka2.251161111113LSep 24 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.671210111152M. Chmelicek2.101012138113LSep 16 · 21:15R. Vavricka1.33751181R. Jonas3.2511119113LSep 16 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.91511611112L. Vosyka1.80118114133LSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113WSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.501111113R. Jonas2.506670LSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191
J. Kabelka10
WSep 25 · 19:05J. Martin1.574590J. Kabelka2.251111113LSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9151151192J. Kabelka1.80119114113WSep 22 · 19:35M. Jinek3.00961141J. Kabelka1.3611113113LSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113LSep 20 · 21:14J. Kabelka2.38116481R. Neterda1.5381111113LSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113WSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113WSep 20 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.44713911102J. Kabelka2.631111116123WSep 18 · 21:48J. Kabelka1.831111113M. Cyrus1.839680
Upcoming Matches
R. Vavricka
Nothing scheduled
J. Kabelka
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