TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Radek Hruby 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117611116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radek Hruby below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 13–2 Radek Hruby Radek Hruby has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chmelicek beat Hruby 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hruby form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.33 / Hruby 3.25
TT Cup · #13213669
Chmelicek1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it71% 55 of 78
Hruby3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 18 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek9wins
AwayHruby1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek85.7%6 of 7
AwayHruby0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek7Hruby3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek7Hruby3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek4Hruby6n = 10Hruby took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek7Hruby2n = 9Chmelicek took 7 of 9
S5Chmelicek3Hruby0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHrubyC − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.936.4+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHrubyBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 553 vs 52 / 14247%36.6%260 / 553 vs 52 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.33/Hruby 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 19:35M. Chmelicek521011911113R. Hruby3912611462
LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek391181191R. Hruby4491113113
WAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek3711411113R. Hruby35811881
WAug 28 · 19:35M. Chmelicek43111110113R. Hruby34491291
WAug 19 · 18:05M. Chmelicek4211119113R. Hruby34791171
WJul 25 · 17:05M. Chmelicek341211113R. Hruby1910630
WJul 25 · 15:35M. Chmelicek461011311113R. Hruby4312711852
WMay 1 · 21:10M. Chmelicek55159119113R. Hruby52131191182
WMay 1 · 20:35M. Chmelicek4211119113R. Hruby31761171
WMar 22 · 17:05M. Chmelicek3961111113R. Hruby33118951
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 28 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.006670WSep 28 · 19:35R. Hruby3.2512611462M. Chmelicek1.331011911113LSep 28 · 18:35M. Chmelicek2.2561120L. Vosyka1.571113113LSep 28 · 17:05T. Motacek1.4411128113M. Chmelicek2.636101191LSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:05R. Neterda1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.203460LSep 28 · 14:35M. Flesar1.571713123M. Chmelicek2.251511100WSep 27 · 13:45M. Chmelicek1.781415113P. Pesout1.93121390LSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113WSep 27 · 11:05M. Chmelicek2.001111113R. Vavricka1.737790
R. Hruby10
LSep 28 · 20:35L. Vosyka1.40711911113R. Hruby2.7511511852LSep 28 · 19:35R. Hruby3.2512611462M. Chmelicek1.331011911113LSep 28 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.501111113R. Hruby2.507450LSep 12 · 17:04P. Pesout1.731214113R. Hruby2.00101260LSep 12 · 16:35T. Motacek1.531111113R. Hruby2.383880WSep 12 · 15:35R. Hruby2.63119115113P. Pesout1.4441141142LSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
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