TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lubomir Vana vs Simon Mezlik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Lubomir Vana
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119115114––
Simon Mezlik
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–5Last 6Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLubomir Vana to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLubomir Vana above · Simon Mezlik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Lubomir Vana at 62.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Lubomir Vana 1–0 Simon Mezlik Simon Mezlik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1562.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vana 1438 vs Mezlik 1215
Vana
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 40% vs Mezlik 20%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 50% vs Mezlik 17%
Vana
Correct
33pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana +1 · Mezlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Vana) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.50 / Mezlik 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Vana)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13238219
Vana1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Mezlik2.50
17%won 1 of 6 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 1 of 5
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVana1wins
AwayMezlik0wins
Vana leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVanaMezlikV − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match39.029.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 83 vs 1 / 643.4%16.7%36 / 83 vs 1 / 6Avg sets wonper match1.90.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.527.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.50/Mezlik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 20:35L. Vana3961111113S. Mezlik29119541
L. Vana10
WOct 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.574111110112L. Vana2.25117512133LOct 3 · 18:35T. Motacek1.6711612133L. Vana2.1051110111LOct 1 · 17:54T. Krcil1.8391411113L. Vana1.831112591LOct 1 · 16:35T. Krcil2.00111177143L. Vana1.73561111122WOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491WOct 1 · 14:05J. Martin1.914890L. Vana1.801111113WSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252WSep 26 · 20:35J. Martin2.25491361L. Vana1.57111111113LSep 26 · 19:35L. Vana1.91911491K. Lahodny1.8011611113LSep 26 · 18:05D. Hons1.5711811113L. Vana2.25511871
S. Mezlik6
WOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101LOct 3 · 19:35S. Mezlik3.00412981T. Motacek1.36111011113WOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.30821141S. Mezlik3.4011118113LOct 2 · 20:34L. Vosyka1.301111113S. Mezlik3.409650LOct 2 · 19:34S. Mezlik1.9112840T. Motacek1.801411113LOct 2 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—1111113S. Mezlik—3660
Upcoming Matches
L. Vana
Nothing scheduled
S. Mezlik
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