TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Lubomir Vana 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11561112101311––
Lubomir Vana
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Lubomir Vana below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Tomas Motacek at 55.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–0 Lubomir Vana Lubomir Vana has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1555.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1518 vs Vana 1429
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 60% vs Vana 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 80% vs Vana 50%
Motacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Vana -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Motacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vana form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.666 / Vana 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Motacek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237529
Motacek1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite62% won 23 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Vana2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayVana0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMotacek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMotacekVanaM − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match47.044.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 71 vs 34 / 8056.3%42.5%40 / 71 vs 34 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.67/Vana 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 25 · 14:35T. Motacek47571311113L. Vana44111111472
T. Motacek10
LOct 2 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.6331313133T. Motacek1.44111111111WOct 2 · 19:34S. Mezlik1.9112840T. Motacek1.801411113LOct 2 · 18:35T. Motacek1.578770L. Vosyka2.251111113WOct 1 · 21:38T. Motacek1.7311611113L. Vosyka2.00611881WOct 1 · 20:35T. Motacek1.9111115113L. Vosyka1.80671141WOct 1 · 19:05M. Flesar1.6711811882T. Motacek2.10711611113WOct 1 · 18:35D. Hons1.83119101192T. Motacek1.83811127113WSep 28 · 17:05T. Motacek1.4411128113M. Chmelicek2.636101191WSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113
L. Vana10
WOct 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.574111110112L. Vana2.25117512133LOct 1 · 17:54T. Krcil1.8391411113L. Vana1.831112591LOct 1 · 16:35T. Krcil2.00111177143L. Vana1.73561111122WOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491WOct 1 · 14:05J. Martin1.914890L. Vana1.801111113WSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252WSep 26 · 20:35J. Martin2.25491361L. Vana1.57111111113LSep 26 · 19:35L. Vana1.91911491K. Lahodny1.8011611113LSep 26 · 18:05D. Hons1.5711811113L. Vana2.25511871WSep 25 · 17:10P. Pesout1.6711691192L. Vana2.10911119113
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