TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Tomas Motacek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189111012117911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 · our read held David Hons at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 4–2 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Hons
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1534 vs Motacek 1494
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 20% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 40% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -4 · Motacek +2
Hons
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hons) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.833 / Motacek 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hons)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13226383
Hons1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Motacek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayMotacek2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderHons leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons66.7%2 of 3
AwayMotacek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons3Motacek3n = 6split evenly
S2Hons4Motacek2n = 6Hons took 4 of 6
S3Hons2Motacek4n = 6Motacek took 4 of 6
S4Hons4Motacek2n = 6Hons took 4 of 6
S5Hons2Motacek1n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHonsMotacekH − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.039.7+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 538 vs 35 / 6450.6%54.7%272 / 538 vs 35 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.83/Motacek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 23 · 17:10D. Hons4211119113T. Motacek27451171
LSep 23 · 14:35D. Hons47119111062T. Motacek45611512113
WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons50119511143T. Motacek49711118122
WSep 19 · 19:35D. Hons481011511113T. Motacek4212611942
WSep 18 · 17:40D. Hons4061111123T. Motacek361196101
LSep 18 · 15:35D. Hons25611621T. Motacek3911611113
D. Hons10
LSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka1.619111114113D. Hons2.2011771642LSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar2.751111123D. Hons1.4042100LSep 28 · 11:35D. Hons2.20116671J. Ruzicka1.6141111113LSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171WSep 27 · 21:33P. Zivny1.831071191D. Hons1.8312116113WSep 27 · 20:35D. Hons1.361111113M. Flesar3.009970WSep 27 · 19:05S. Kafka1.806670D. Hons1.911111113LSep 27 · 18:35P. Zivny1.8391112123D. Hons1.8311510101WSep 27 · 17:35D. Hons1.7311711113P. Zivny2.00711851LSep 27 · 16:35D. Hons2.10911551T. Palan1.6711911113
T. Motacek10
WOct 1 · 19:05M. Flesar1.6711811882T. Motacek2.10711611113WSep 28 · 17:05T. Motacek1.4411128113M. Chmelicek2.636101191WSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113LSep 27 · 13:16R. Vavricka2.251113113T. Motacek1.5781190WSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113LSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113WSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772
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