TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Ladislav Vosyka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117511114––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Vosyka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Ladislav Vosyka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Ladislav Vosyka at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–2 Ladislav Vosyka Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vosyka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1518 vs Vosyka 1537
Vosyka
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 80% vs Vosyka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 60% vs Vosyka 90%
Vosyka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +4 · Vosyka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vosyka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vosyka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.909 / Vosyka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vosyka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226944
Motacek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Vosyka1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 62 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayVosyka2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderVosyka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotacek33.3%1 of 3
AwayVosykan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek3Vosyka0n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S2Motacek0Vosyka3n = 3Vosyka took 3 of 3
S3Motacek0Vosyka3n = 3Vosyka took 3 of 3
S4Motacek1Vosyka2n = 3Vosyka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMotacekVosykaM − VBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match38.043.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekVosykaBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 66 vs 250 / 48056.1%52.1%37 / 66 vs 250 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VosykaMotacek 1.91/Vosyka 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vosyka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek321156101L. Vosyka4061111123
LAug 27 · 21:33T. Motacek34117791L. Vosyka4071111113
WAug 27 · 19:33T. Motacek48148411113L. Vosyka49121111872
T. Motacek10
WOct 1 · 19:05M. Flesar1.6711811882T. Motacek2.10711611113WOct 1 · 18:35D. Hons1.83119101192T. Motacek1.83811127113WSep 28 · 17:05T. Motacek1.4411128113M. Chmelicek2.636101191WSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113LSep 27 · 13:16R. Vavricka2.251113113T. Motacek1.5781190WSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113LSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113
L. Vosyka10
WOct 1 · 19:35L. Vosyka2.00117911113D. Hons1.7381111632WOct 1 · 18:05M. Flesar2.108850L. Vosyka1.671111113WSep 30 · 21:34J. Martin1.53111051152L. Vosyka2.38412117113LSep 30 · 20:05J. Martin1.5711119133L. Vosyka2.258811111WSep 30 · 19:35R. Jonas3.00761161L. Vosyka1.3611117113WSep 30 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.4011116113M. Cyrus2.75681151WSep 28 · 21:45L. Vosyka1.61111599113J. Kabelka2.20913111152WSep 28 · 20:35L. Vosyka1.40711911113R. Hruby2.7511511852WSep 28 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.10119591L. Vosyka1.6771111113WSep 28 · 18:35M. Chmelicek2.2561120L. Vosyka1.571113113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.