TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Lubomir Vana 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Lubomir Vana
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLubomir Vana to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Lubomir Vana below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Lubomir Vana at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 0–2 Lubomir Vana Jirasek Martin has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martin 1509 vs Vana 1418
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 60% vs Vana 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 60% vs Vana 30%
Martin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -1 · Vana +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vana) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.909 / Vana 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vana)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226409
Martin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Vana1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 26)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartin0wins
AwayVana2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVana leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMartinVanaM − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.047.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 125 vs 32 / 7653.6%42.1%67 / 125 vs 32 / 76Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VanaMartin 1.91/Vana 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 26 · 21:10J. Martin4411971252L. Vana507111110113
LSep 26 · 20:35J. Martin32491361L. Vana44111111113
J. Martin10
LOct 1 · 15:05J. Martin1.6711491162T. Krcil2.10811112113LSep 30 · 21:34J. Martin1.53111051152L. Vosyka2.38412117113WSep 30 · 20:05J. Martin1.5711119133L. Vosyka2.258811111WSep 30 · 19:05J. Martin1.28111410113M. Cyrus3.506121241WSep 30 · 18:05J. Martin1.571111113R. Jonas2.259750LSep 29 · 21:45J. Martin1.57811116152T. Krcil2.25118811173WSep 29 · 20:05J. Martin1.53127115113T. Krcil2.38101171182WSep 29 · 19:05J. Martin1.83127811123J. Kabelka1.831011117102WSep 29 · 18:05J. Martin1.401111113M. Cyrus2.756790LSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252
L. Vana10
WSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252WSep 26 · 20:35J. Martin2.25491361L. Vana1.57111111113LSep 26 · 19:35L. Vana1.91911491K. Lahodny1.8011611113LSep 26 · 18:05D. Hons1.5711811113L. Vana2.25511871WSep 25 · 17:10P. Pesout1.6711691192L. Vana2.10911119113LSep 25 · 16:35L. Vana1.808144111P. Pesout1.91111211133LSep 25 · 15:05J. Manhal Jr1.671111113L. Vana2.104870LSep 25 · 14:35T. Motacek1.67571311113L. Vana2.10111111472LSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080LSep 16 · 16:05R. Neterda1.831061111113L. Vana1.8312116682
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