TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Tomas Krcil 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118411911112611
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 57.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 4–1 Tomas Krcil Tomas Krcil has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0057.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Martin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1491 vs Krcil 1508
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 60% vs Krcil 80%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 60% vs Krcil 90%
Krcil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -2 · Krcil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.666 / Krcil 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Martin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226953
Martin1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 34 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Krcil2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 23 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMartin4wins
AwayKrcil1wins
4 of 5 to a deciderMartin leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartin100%3 of 3
AwayKrciln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin3Krcil2n = 5Martin took 3 of 5
S2Martin3Krcil2n = 5Martin took 3 of 5
S3Martin4Krcil1n = 5Martin took 4 of 5
S4Martin1Krcil4n = 5Krcil took 4 of 5
S5Martin3Krcil1n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMartinKrcilM − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match45.243.8+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 126 vs 157 / 29953.2%52.5%67 / 126 vs 157 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.67/Krcil 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 29 · 21:45J. Martin51811116152T. Krcil55118811173
WSep 29 · 20:05J. Martin46127115113T. Krcil47101171182
WSep 21 · 19:05J. Martin43111144133T. Krcil47951111112
WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin471141110113T. Krcil3601171262
WAug 3 · 15:05J. Martin3951211113T. Krcil341110851
J. Martin10
LOct 1 · 14:05J. Martin1.914890L. Vana1.801111113LSep 30 · 21:34J. Martin1.53111051152L. Vosyka2.38412117113WSep 30 · 20:05J. Martin1.5711119133L. Vosyka2.258811111WSep 30 · 19:05J. Martin1.28111410113M. Cyrus3.506121241WSep 30 · 18:05J. Martin1.571111113R. Jonas2.259750LSep 29 · 21:45J. Martin1.57811116152T. Krcil2.25118811173WSep 29 · 20:05J. Martin1.53127115113T. Krcil2.38101171182WSep 29 · 19:05J. Martin1.83127811123J. Kabelka1.831011117102WSep 29 · 18:05J. Martin1.401111113M. Cyrus2.756790LSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252
T. Krcil10
WOct 1 · 14:35O. Pros1.8342110T. Krcil1.831111133WSep 29 · 21:45J. Martin1.57811116152T. Krcil2.25118811173LSep 29 · 20:05J. Martin1.53127115113T. Krcil2.38101171182WSep 29 · 19:35M. Cyrus2.751151161T. Krcil1.4013119113WSep 29 · 18:35T. Krcil1.5311115113J. Kabelka2.38971141WSep 22 · 16:09T. Krcil1.80111111113P. Pesout1.91137881WSep 22 · 15:35P. Pesout1.831110101182T. Krcil1.83712128113WSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 21 · 21:05T. Krcil1.441111113M. Jinek2.637970WSep 21 · 20:35T. Krcil2.001111113M. Jinek1.739580
Upcoming Matches
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T. Krcil
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