TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krcil vs Petr Pesout 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113117118118––
Petr Pesout
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8
80 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 13–7 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Krcil beat Pesout 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.80 / Pesout 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krcil)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13179432
Krcil1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 47 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Pesout1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayPesout3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil85.7%6 of 7
AwayPesout66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil7Pesout3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Krcil6Pesout4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S3Krcil5Pesout5n = 10split evenly
S4Krcil4Pesout5n = 9Pesout took 5 of 9
S5Krcil4Pesout2n = 6Krcil took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilPesoutK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.638.2+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 293 vs 160 / 34551.9%46.4%152 / 293 vs 160 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.80/Pesout 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:35T. Krcil50712128113P. Pesout501110101182
WSep 17 · 15:05T. Krcil46119114113P. Pesout3371121122
LSep 15 · 15:35T. Krcil4381111582P. Pesout47116811113
WAug 3 · 10:35T. Krcil4211119113P. Pesout36881191
WJun 8 · 17:35T. Krcil4111118113P. Pesout32881151
LJun 8 · 16:35T. Krcil379117101P. Pesout3911511123
LJun 1 · 16:35T. Krcil4511591282P. Pesout529111110113
WMay 15 · 17:35T. Krcil331111113P. Pesout149320
WMay 15 · 14:05T. Krcil47115119113P. Pesout3891121152
WApr 20 · 16:35T. Krcil52119911123P. Pesout41311116102
T. Krcil10
WSep 22 · 15:35P. Pesout1.831110101182T. Krcil1.83712128113WSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 21 · 21:05T. Krcil1.441111113M. Jinek2.637970WSep 21 · 20:35T. Krcil2.001111113M. Jinek1.739580LSep 21 · 19:05J. Martin1.44111144133T. Krcil2.63951111112LSep 21 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.911111113T. Krcil1.804960WSep 17 · 17:40T. Krcil1.8311911113L. Vosyka1.83911361WSep 17 · 16:05T. Krcil2.00414116123L. Vosyka1.731112811102WSep 17 · 15:05T. Krcil1.83119114113P. Pesout1.8371121122LSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113
P. Pesout10
WSep 22 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.83911111182P. Pesout1.83116613113LSep 22 · 15:35P. Pesout1.831110101182T. Krcil1.83712128113LSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113WSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:05T. Krcil1.83119114113P. Pesout1.8371121122LSep 17 · 14:35L. Vosyka1.5361113143P. Pesout2.3811811121WSep 15 · 17:10O. Pros1.73571151P. Pesout2.0011118113LSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:35P. Pesout2.00116811113T. Krcil1.7381111582LSep 15 · 14:05O. Pros1.801211143P. Pesout1.91107120
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