TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145276
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911112411112
Petr Pesout
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 79 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 11–7 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Krcil
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1391 vs Pesout 1371
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Pesout 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Pesout 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -1 · Pesout -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.83 / Pesout 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krcil)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13145276
Krcil1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pesout1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayPesout3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil85.7%6 of 7
AwayPesout66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil7Pesout3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Krcil7Pesout3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S3Krcil3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10
S4Krcil6Pesout3n = 9Krcil took 6 of 9
S5Krcil3Pesout2n = 5Krcil took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilPesoutK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.5+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 284 vs 158 / 34051.1%46.5%145 / 284 vs 158 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.83/Pesout 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 15:35T. Krcil4381111582P. Pesout47116811113
WAug 3 · 10:35T. Krcil4211119113P. Pesout36881191
WJun 8 · 17:35T. Krcil4111118113P. Pesout32881151
LJun 8 · 16:35T. Krcil379117101P. Pesout3911511123
LJun 1 · 16:35T. Krcil4511591282P. Pesout529111110113
WMay 15 · 17:35T. Krcil331111113P. Pesout149320
WMay 15 · 14:05T. Krcil47115119113P. Pesout3891121152
WApr 20 · 16:35T. Krcil52119911123P. Pesout41311116102
WApr 10 · 17:10T. Krcil4111117123P. Pesout368711101
WApr 10 · 16:05T. Krcil46611711113P. Pesout4011111982
T. Krcil10
WSep 17 · 16:05T. Krcil2.00414116123L. Vosyka1.731112811102LSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113WSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:05O. Pros1.809670T. Krcil1.911111113LSep 15 · 15:35P. Pesout2.00116811113T. Krcil1.7381111582LSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113LSep 14 · 21:35M. Rojka1.731111113T. Krcil2.005290WSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440LSep 14 · 19:05T. Krcil1.736790M. Rojka2.001111113WSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591
P. Pesout10
LSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113WSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 14:35L. Vosyka1.5361113143P. Pesout2.3811811121WSep 15 · 17:10O. Pros1.73571151P. Pesout2.0011118113LSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:35P. Pesout2.00116811113T. Krcil1.7381111582LSep 15 · 14:05O. Pros1.801211143P. Pesout1.91107120LSep 13 · 13:40K. Lahodny1.5811911113P. Pesout2.20411481WSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113WSep 13 · 11:35P. Pesout2.7511118133J. Jr1.405911111
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