TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krcil vs Jan Kabelka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117511114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Krcil at 62.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 18–9 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:32What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Krcil
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1479 vs Kabelka 1454
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 100% vs Kabelka 60%
Krcil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 80% vs Kabelka 60%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +5 · Kabelka -1
Krcil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Krcil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.53 / Kabelka 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Krcil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13215418
Krcil1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Kabelka2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayKabelka3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil77.8%7 of 9
AwayKabelkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil9Kabelka1n = 10Krcil took 9 of 10
S2Krcil6Kabelka4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S3Krcil7Kabelka3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S4Krcil1Kabelka3n = 4Kabelka took 3 of 4
S5Krcil2Kabelka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilKabelkaKrcil − KabelkaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.330.5+7.8per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 294 vs 142 / 28852%49.3%153 / 294 vs 142 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.53/Kabelka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil331111113J. Kabelka112720
WSep 1 · 21:18T. Krcil331111113J. Kabelka164570
LSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil47127611112J. Kabelka521011117133
WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil331111113J. Kabelka146440
WAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil531111911113J. Kabelka4668111382
WJun 16 · 19:35T. Krcil331111113J. Kabelka216780
WJun 11 · 21:20T. Krcil361111143J. Kabelka2439120
LJun 11 · 19:05T. Krcil178630J. Kabelka331111113
LJun 2 · 18:35T. Krcil4213911542J. Kabelka481111411113
WMay 28 · 18:05T. Krcil561510119113J. Kabelka40131201142
T. Krcil10
WSep 29 · 19:35M. Cyrus2.751151161T. Krcil1.4013119113WSep 22 · 16:09T. Krcil1.80111111113P. Pesout1.91137881WSep 22 · 15:35P. Pesout1.831110101182T. Krcil1.83712128113WSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 21 · 21:05T. Krcil1.441111113M. Jinek2.637970WSep 21 · 20:35T. Krcil2.001111113M. Jinek1.739580LSep 21 · 19:05J. Martin1.44111144133T. Krcil2.63951111112LSep 21 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.911111113T. Krcil1.804960WSep 17 · 17:40T. Krcil1.8311911113L. Vosyka1.83911361WSep 17 · 16:05T. Krcil2.00414116123L. Vosyka1.731112811102
J. Kabelka10
LSep 29 · 19:05J. Martin1.83127811123J. Kabelka1.831011117102LSep 28 · 21:45L. Vosyka1.61111599113J. Kabelka2.20913111152WSep 28 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.006670LSep 28 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.10119591L. Vosyka1.6771111113WSep 28 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.501111113R. Hruby2.507450WSep 25 · 21:39J. Kabelka2.25111197113R. Vavricka1.5789111172WSep 25 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.3613117113M. Jinek3.001191131WSep 25 · 19:05J. Martin1.574590J. Kabelka2.251111113LSep 25 · 18:35R. Vavricka1.6791311113J. Kabelka2.101111741LSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981
Upcoming Matches
T. Krcil
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J. Kabelka
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