TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Lovl vs Ondrej Pros 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71110121181012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 6–1 Ondrej Pros Ondrej Pros has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Lovl beat Pros 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.33 / Pros 3.25
TT Cup · #13216714
Lovl1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 75 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 62 of 79
Pros3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLovl6wins
AwayPros1wins
4 of 7 to a deciderLovl leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl83.3%5 of 6
AwayProsn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl6Pros1n = 7Lovl took 6 of 7
S2Lovl5Pros2n = 7Lovl took 5 of 7
S3Lovl4Pros3n = 7Lovl took 4 of 7
S4Lovl2Pros3n = 5Pros took 3 of 5
S5Lovl3Pros1n = 4Lovl took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricLovlProsL − PBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match43.034.6+8.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlProsBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 364 vs 120 / 26652.2%45.1%190 / 364 vs 120 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.33/Pros 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
1–3
Pros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 29 · 11:35J. Lovl331111113O. Pros228590
WSep 8 · 11:35J. Lovl501111107113O. Pros3634121162
WMar 13 · 11:05J. Lovl44111110123O. Pros354912101
WMar 10 · 14:40J. Lovl341111123O. Pros2578100
LMar 10 · 13:05J. Lovl43111081132O. Pros49612119113
WDec 17 · 14:40J. Lovl49117118123O. Pros43811311102
WDec 17 · 12:05J. Lovl48711118113O. Pros3211431132
J. Lovl10
LSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252WSep 29 · 11:35O. Pros2.758590J. Lovl1.401111113LSep 29 · 10:35J. Lovl1.737780R. Neterda2.001111113WSep 27 · 09:40K. Lahodny1.83311781J. Lovl1.8311911113WSep 27 · 08:05J. Lovl1.501111113M. Flesar2.509890LSep 27 · 07:05J. Lovl1.57117891K. Lahodny2.2591111113WSep 27 · 06:05J. Lovl1.6111711113R. Vavricka2.20911781WSep 26 · 09:49J. Ruzicka1.83101070J. Lovl1.831212113WSep 26 · 08:35J. Lovl1.611311118113R. Vavricka2.20116131152LSep 26 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.911111113J. Lovl1.808430
O. Pros10
LSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda2.1051112113O. Pros1.671121061LSep 29 · 11:35O. Pros2.758590J. Lovl1.401111113LSep 29 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.331111113O. Pros3.253790LSep 24 · 09:05T. Trnka1.33111111113O. Pros3.25613321WSep 24 · 08:35M. Flesar2.388111171O. Pros1.5311513113LSep 24 · 07:35O. Pros4.504121181P. Chvatal1.1711149113LSep 24 · 06:05T. Trnka1.531111113O. Pros2.388790LSep 17 · 13:39O. Pros2.2064110J. Ruzicka1.611111133WSep 17 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.361051181O. Pros3.0012116113WSep 17 · 11:35L. Vosyka1.40461151O. Pros2.5211119113
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