TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Ruzicka vs Martin Chmelicek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911117911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jan Ruzicka at 67.3%
55 points drawn · the score is 20 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 1–1 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5567.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1662 vs Chmelicek 1378
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 284 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Chmelicek 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 70% vs Chmelicek 30%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -2 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.444 / Chmelicek 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Ruzicka)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242735
Ruzicka1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 100 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it84% 80 of 95
Chmelicek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRuzicka1wins
AwayChmelicek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRuzickaChmelicekR − CBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.035.5+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 473 vs 265 / 56653.1%46.8%251 / 473 vs 265 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Ruzicka4011117113M. Chmelicek31891131
LJun 30 · 16:35J. Ruzicka34711881M. Chmelicek4011711113
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 4 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113M. Flesar2.638570LOct 1 · 13:44P. Chvatal2.001112613113J. Ruzicka1.73910111562LOct 1 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.201112113J. Ruzicka1.6161090WOct 1 · 11:35R. Neterda2.109740J. Ruzicka1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.83841111113J. Lovl1.8311113462WSep 29 · 17:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113T. Trnka2.205360LSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133WSep 29 · 15:05T. Beran1.734690J. Ruzicka2.001111113WSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 29 · 13:40R. Neterda2.00611851J. Ruzicka1.7311911113
M. Chmelicek10
LOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113LOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek1.3651111692S. Mezlik3.00119211113LOct 4 · 07:05R. Vavricka1.7321111113M. Chmelicek2.00118951LOct 4 · 06:35J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.107490LOct 3 · 21:10S. Mezlik—11611123M. Chmelicek—4117101LOct 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.63111041192T. Motacek1.44512118113LOct 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.574111110112L. Vana2.25117512133LOct 3 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.30821141S. Mezlik3.4011118113WOct 2 · 21:34L. Vosyka1.50111981M. Chmelicek2.5011811113
Upcoming Matches
J. Ruzicka
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M. Chmelicek
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