TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Jan Ruzicka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jan Ruzicka @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jan Ruzicka at 59.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 5–13 Jan Ruzicka Pavel Chvatal has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:2759.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1628 vs Ruzicka 1690
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Ruzicka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 70% vs Ruzicka 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +4 · Ruzicka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 2.20 / Ruzicka 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Ruzicka)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224983
Chvatal2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Ruzicka1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 99 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it84% 79 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal2wins
AwayRuzicka8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal25%2 of 8
AwayRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal8Ruzicka2n = 10Chvatal took 8 of 10
S2Chvatal3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Chvatal4Ruzicka6n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Chvatal1Ruzicka8n = 9Ruzicka took 8 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalRuzickaC − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.3−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 276 vs 251 / 47155.1%53.3%152 / 276 vs 251 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaChvatal 2.20/Ruzicka 1.61
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jan Ruzicka @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 07:05P. Chvatal28881111J. Ruzicka3711114113
LJul 21 · 14:05P. Chvatal27561151J. Ruzicka4211119113
WJul 15 · 13:45P. Chvatal341111123J. Ruzicka2569100
LJul 15 · 11:05P. Chvatal381181091J. Ruzicka4171112113
LApr 28 · 17:40P. Chvatal4511911862J. Ruzicka50911811113
LApr 28 · 14:35P. Chvatal36119881J. Ruzicka3741111113
LApr 23 · 13:40P. Chvatal531111514122J. Ruzicka59991116143
LApr 23 · 11:05P. Chvatal43111010121J. Ruzicka4571212143
LMar 31 · 10:35P. Chvatal391381261J. Ruzicka47111114113
WMar 19 · 18:10P. Chvatal3511112113J. Ruzicka30961141
P. Chvatal10
WOct 1 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.001112113J. Lovl1.7361070WOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990WSep 25 · 09:05P. Chvatal1.5011311113M. Rojka2.50911971WSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131LSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113WSep 25 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.6181111113M. Rojka2.20116881WSep 24 · 17:03P. Chvatal1.531113113J. Manhal Jr2.3841150LSep 24 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6183111372R. Neterda2.201111611113WSep 24 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.53111013113J. Manhal Jr2.388121161LSep 24 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.5314911121J. Martin2.3816114143
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 1 · 11:35R. Neterda2.109740J. Ruzicka1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.83841111113J. Lovl1.8311113462WSep 29 · 17:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113T. Trnka2.205360LSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133WSep 29 · 15:05T. Beran1.734690J. Ruzicka2.001111113WSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 29 · 13:40R. Neterda2.00611851J. Ruzicka1.7311911113WSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252LSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.331111113O. Pros3.253790
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