TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadym Kucheriavyi vs Sergey Osipov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511811119116118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:02 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 68.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Kucheriavyi 2–0 Sergey Osipov Sergey Osipov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0268.8%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 4.6pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kucheriavyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1239 vs Osipov 1175
Kucheriavyi
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 80% vs Osipov 60%
Kucheriavyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 60% vs Osipov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi +4 · Osipov +1
Kucheriavyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 1.363 / Osipov 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234417
Kucheriavyi1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 27 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it63% 15 of 24
Osipov3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKucheriavyi2wins
AwayOsipov0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKucheriavyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKucheriavyiOsipovK − OBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.045.0+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 114 vs 127 / 27343.9%46.5%50 / 114 vs 127 / 273Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiKucheriavyi 1.36/Osipov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kucheriavyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi46581111113S. Osipov4511119682
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660WSep 27 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi2.5011117113V. Kondratenko1.50591151WSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552LSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 10:50V. Mykhalchenko2.201311114113V. Kucheriavyi1.6115341192WSep 19 · 08:50V. Stukalov2.251110471V. Kucheriavyi1.5781211113LSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133LSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 13 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.441211113D. Khavanskyi2.6310830
S. Osipov10
LOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113WSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570LSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660LSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841WSep 27 · 12:40S. Osipov2.631111133V. Kondratenko1.4486110WSep 27 · 11:40O. Miklukha1.57111051162S. Osipov2.25512116113WSep 22 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.673720S. Osipov2.101111113WSep 22 · 16:10S. Osipov3.001111113D. Khavanskyi1.366370LSep 22 · 14:10V. Varchenko1.67147119113S. Osipov2.10121181172LSep 22 · 12:10S. Semenets1.4411612113S. Osipov2.638111091
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