TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Varchenko vs Vadym Kucheriavyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811713151012611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Vadym Kucheriavyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 104 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 59.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 5–3 Vadym Kucheriavyi Vadym Kucheriavyi has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1217 vs Kucheriavyi 1228
Kucheriavyi
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 80% vs Kucheriavyi 60%
Varchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 70% vs Kucheriavyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko +3 · Kucheriavyi +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucheriavyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.67 / Kucheriavyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Varchenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13202077
Varchenko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 23 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Kucheriavyi2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 5 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVarchenko5wins
AwayKucheriavyi3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderVarchenko leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko57.1%4 of 7
AwayKucheriavyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko7Kucheriavyi1n = 8Varchenko took 7 of 8
S2Varchenko4Kucheriavyi4n = 8split evenly
S3Varchenko6Kucheriavyi2n = 8Varchenko took 6 of 8
S4Varchenko1Kucheriavyi5n = 6Kucheriavyi took 5 of 6
S5Varchenko2Kucheriavyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKucheriavyiV − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match43.837.0+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKucheriavyiBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 228 vs 50 / 11746.5%42.7%106 / 228 vs 50 / 117Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.67/Kucheriavyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kucheriavyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 12:50V. Varchenko341112113V. Kucheriavyi2171040
WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko551191311113V. Kucheriavyi47411111382
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Varchenko49119118102V. Kucheriavyi42411411123
LAug 22 · 05:30V. Varchenko48117111092V. Kucheriavyi44411612113
WAug 16 · 06:05V. Varchenko331111113V. Kucheriavyi186930
WJun 14 · 10:05V. Varchenko525111110153V. Kucheriavyi51119612132
WMay 9 · 05:30V. Varchenko4211119113V. Kucheriavyi29931161
LApr 19 · 16:40V. Varchenko371171181V. Kucheriavyi4491113113
V. Varchenko10
WSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122WSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841WSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181LSep 27 · 10:40V. Varchenko2.635560V. Kondratenko1.441111113WSep 22 · 17:10V. Varchenko2.101111113D. Khavanskyi1.677350WSep 22 · 15:10S. Semenets1.508880V. Varchenko2.501111113WSep 22 · 14:10V. Varchenko1.67147119113S. Osipov2.10121181172LSep 22 · 13:10V. Stukalov2.101112113V. Varchenko1.6761090WSep 20 · 16:40V. Varchenko2.20121311113O. Stopin1.611411351LSep 20 · 15:10V. Varchenko2.7511831142V. Kondratenko1.40311118113
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660WSep 27 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi2.5011117113V. Kondratenko1.50591151WSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552LSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 10:50V. Mykhalchenko2.201311114113V. Kucheriavyi1.6115341192WSep 19 · 08:50V. Stukalov2.251110471V. Kucheriavyi1.5781211113LSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133LSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 13 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.441211113D. Khavanskyi2.6310830WSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113
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