TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Stukalov vs Volodymyr Varchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210119––––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 56.2%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 9–15 Volodymyr Varchenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1174 vs Varchenko 1165
Stukalov
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Varchenko 40%
Varchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Varchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov +1 · Varchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.10 / Varchenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varchenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13172945
Stukalov2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 105 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back20% 27 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 82
Varchenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayVarchenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stukalov6Varchenko4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov7Varchenko2n = 9Stukalov took 7 of 9
S5Stukalov4Varchenko2n = 6Stukalov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovVarchenkoS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.843.1−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 829 vs 102 / 22549.8%45.3%413 / 829 vs 102 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStukalov 2.10/Varchenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov50116913113V. Varchenko47911111152
LSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov2461170V. Varchenko351113113
WSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov3731211113V. Varchenko361110961
LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov331012471V. Varchenko44121011113
WAug 22 · 09:30V. Stukalov4211137113V. Varchenko354111191
WAug 5 · 18:30V. Stukalov541291111113V. Varchenko4214116562
LJun 14 · 07:35V. Stukalov42811211102V. Varchenko47115118123
WApr 26 · 09:35V. Stukalov541041111183V. Varchenko50121174162
LApr 19 · 15:10V. Stukalov40311511102V. Varchenko50117119123
WApr 12 · 13:10V. Stukalov52111189133V. Varchenko45391111112
V. Stukalov10
WSep 22 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.2211911133S. Osipov4.004119111LSep 20 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.388180M. Khalenko1.531111113LSep 20 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.251111113V. Stukalov3.756590LSep 20 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.108135101S. Semenets1.67111111123LSep 20 · 07:35D. Khavanskyi1.831111113V. Stukalov1.837740LSep 20 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.0051111942O. Mytsyk1.36118811113WSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111LSep 19 · 08:50V. Stukalov2.251110471V. Kucheriavyi1.5781211113WSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110
V. Varchenko10
WSep 20 · 16:40V. Varchenko2.20121311113O. Stopin1.611411351LSep 20 · 15:10V. Varchenko2.7511831142V. Kondratenko1.40311118113LSep 20 · 13:40V. Varchenko2.254450Y. Korotin1.57111163WSep 20 · 12:10V. Varchenko1.2511613113V. Mykhalchenko3.758111111LSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 11:20V. Varchenko1.6111550D. Khavanskyi2.201311113LSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113
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