TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hrstka vs Petr Provaznik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6117111131012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingTomas Hrstka above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 71 set 4, 10-12
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hrstka 9–12 Petr Provaznik Tomas Hrstka has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hrstka beat Provaznik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrstka 1.666 / Provaznik 2.10
Setka Cup · #13222305
Hrstka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite83% won 10 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Provaznik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 32 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrstka4wins
AwayProvaznik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrstka80%4 of 5
AwayProvaznik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrstka5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrstka5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrstka6Provaznik4n = 10Hrstka took 6 of 10
S4Hrstka2Provaznik4n = 6Provaznik took 4 of 6
S5Hrstka1Provaznik2n = 3Provaznik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrstkaProvaznikH − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.737.2−0.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrstkaProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 75 vs 227 / 47545.3%47.8%34 / 75 vs 227 / 475Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrstkaHrstka 1.67/Provaznik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
1–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 11:00T. Hrstka351113113P. Provaznik2681170
WAug 14 · 12:38T. Hrstka331111113P. Provaznik164660
LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka33981151P. Provaznik4011117113
WAug 10 · 10:30T. Hrstka361411113P. Provaznik2912890
LOct 21 · 12:29T. Hrstka49711611142P. Provaznik54119117163
LOct 21 · 09:30T. Hrstka46411118122P. Provaznik47117411143
LSep 4 · 08:34T. Hrstka31116861P. Provaznik4181111113
LSep 4 · 05:30T. Hrstka33751291P. Provaznik43111110113
WAug 21 · 12:37T. Hrstka48118711113P. Provaznik4391111932
LAug 21 · 09:30T. Hrstka237880P. Provaznik331111113
T. Hrstka10
LSep 30 · 12:00L. Smazik1.611111113T. Hrstka2.206950WSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 21 · 12:58M. Svitac1.5711811113T. Hrstka2.25711951WSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551LSep 21 · 10:30Z. Kuksa2.101181112113T. Hrstka1.6781191432WSep 21 · 10:00M. Hajek1.619111611102T. Hrstka2.20118186123LSep 16 · 12:49T. Hrstka2.5061151372Z. Vasatko1.501181111113WSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik1.50119791T. Hrstka2.5091111113WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113
P. Provaznik10
WSep 30 · 11:30J. Simek1.73914121182P. Provaznik2.001112149113LSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113LSep 25 · 16:13P. Provaznik1.44691151T. Kanka2.6311119113LSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113
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