TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Provaznik vs Tomas Kanka 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911119511––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11
73 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 16–8 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Provaznik beat Kanka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.44 / Kanka 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Provaznik)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13195634
Provaznik1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it65% 32 of 49
Kanka2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 40 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik7wins
AwayKanka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%6 of 8
AwayKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik8Kanka2n = 10Provaznik took 8 of 10
S2Provaznik7Kanka3n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S3Provaznik6Kanka4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik3Kanka3n = 6split evenly
S5Provaznik1Kanka2n = 3Kanka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikKankaP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.434.0+5.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 471 vs 181 / 38048%47.6%226 / 471 vs 181 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.44/Kanka 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 19 · 14:00P. Provaznik3711411113T. Kanka31611861
LMay 22 · 16:42P. Provaznik4891181192T. Kanka43115115113
WMay 22 · 14:30P. Provaznik50118119113T. Kanka4081181122
LMay 12 · 15:30P. Provaznik4713119952T. Kanka501161111113
WApr 27 · 13:15P. Provaznik391511133T. Kanka30136110
WApr 23 · 17:14P. Provaznik331111113T. Kanka188910
WApr 23 · 13:30P. Provaznik4291111113T. Kanka31116771
WApr 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik341111123T. Kanka2275100
LApr 10 · 17:04P. Provaznik25115541T. Kanka4181111113
P. Provaznik10
LSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881LSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113
T. Kanka10
LSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 08:00T. Kanka2.2048110P. Orlowski1.611111133LSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182WSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113LSep 12 · 08:24T. Kanka2.2018760Z. Kuksa1.612011113WSep 12 · 07:45D. Brichacek1.57915110T. Kanka2.251117133LSep 12 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.7311911113T. Kanka2.00711471
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