Jakub Simek vs Tomas Hrstka 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 30Finished

Jakub Simek

Home

1.80

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

117116117––––

Tomas Hrstka

Away

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jakub Simek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJakub Simek above · Tomas Hrstka below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 11-7

Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jakub Simek at 54.0%

53 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:25

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Simek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Simek 1557 vs Hrstka 1548

Simek

Correct

both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Simek 60% vs Hrstka 40%

Simek

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Simek 50% vs Hrstka 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Simek -2 · Hrstka -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Simek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hrstka form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSimek 1.80 / Hrstka 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Simek)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13218913

Simek1.80

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite53% won 10 of 19

Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8

Hrstka1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog47% won 16 of 34

Down 0–1, comes back27% 6 of 22

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricSimekHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 165 vs 34 / 7650.3%44.7%83 / 165 vs 34 / 76Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Simek

Simek 1.80/Hrstka 1.91

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Simek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Simek won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Simek10