TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Simek vs Roman Merkl 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11911985––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-5
Point 53 set 3, 8-5 — our read held Jakub Simek at 66.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 6–3 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Simek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Simek
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1550 vs Merkl 1484
Simek
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 60% vs Merkl 0%
Simek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 60% vs Merkl 40%
Simek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +1 · Merkl -6
Merkl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Simek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 1.50 / Merkl 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Simek)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13196751
Simek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 18) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 9 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Merkl2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back40% 40 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back20% 9 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSimek6wins
AwayMerkl3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSimek leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek75%3 of 4
AwayMerkl40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek4Merkl5n = 9Merkl took 5 of 9
S2Simek5Merkl4n = 9Simek took 5 of 9
S3Simek6Merkl3n = 9Simek took 6 of 9
S4Simek6Merkl2n = 8Simek took 6 of 8
S5Simek2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSimekMerklS − MBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match43.037.8+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 161 vs 265 / 55950.3%47.4%81 / 161 vs 265 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimekSimek 1.50/Merkl 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 8 · 17:45J. Simek4111811113R. Merkl31811571
WSep 20 · 07:15J. Simek341111123R. Merkl2046100
WSep 16 · 10:15J. Simek4391111123R. Merkl321183101
WSep 10 · 10:15J. Simek531091111123R. Merkl49121197102
LAug 29 · 21:10J. Simek367111081R. Merkl4011612113
LAug 29 · 20:00J. Simek4591151192R. Merkl47117117113
LJun 19 · 09:15J. Simek44117511102R. Merkl46611116123
WApr 29 · 12:10J. Simek4211911113R. Merkl31711851
WApr 29 · 10:45J. Simek49711119113R. Merkl4411941192
J. Simek10
WSep 18 · 12:19J. Simek2.1011118113T. Hucko1.67651171LSep 18 · 11:15T. Hucko1.67961111113J. Simek2.1011117362LSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113WSep 18 · 09:45J. Simek2.25671112113P. Oplt1.57111141082WSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122LSep 8 · 19:45J. Simek1.50711851J. Juppa2.5011711113WSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113
R. Merkl10
LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113WSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113WSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113
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