TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Mikhail Taranko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611611117118411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Mikhail Taranko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11
86 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 17–18 Mikhail Taranko Roman Merkl has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Taranko beat Merkl 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Taranko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.80 / Taranko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Merkl)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13199072
Merkl1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Taranko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back32% 10 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayTaranko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTaranko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl50%2 of 4
AwayTaranko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl4Taranko6n = 10Taranko took 6 of 10
S2Merkl3Taranko7n = 10Taranko took 7 of 10
S3Merkl6Taranko4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Merkl6Taranko4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S5Merkl2Taranko3n = 5Taranko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklTarankoM − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.246.0−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklTarankoBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 558 vs 74 / 15947.5%46.5%265 / 558 vs 74 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.80/Taranko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 06:45R. Merkl29481161M. Taranko3811115113
WAug 1 · 06:15R. Merkl51111811113M. Taranko461316981
LJul 26 · 07:15R. Merkl27261181M. Taranko3911116113
WMay 24 · 08:53R. Merkl5911111214113M. Taranko5698141692
LMay 24 · 05:15R. Merkl5099131182M. Taranko531111119113
LMay 9 · 08:54R. Merkl33118771M. Taranko4181111113
LMay 9 · 06:15R. Merkl45111071162M. Taranko46412118113
LMay 3 · 07:15R. Merkl528121111102M. Taranko51111477123
WMar 29 · 08:48R. Merkl571116811113M. Taranko5491811882
WMar 29 · 05:45R. Merkl3961111113M. Taranko36118981
R. Merkl10
LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113WSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113WSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113
M. Taranko10
LSep 26 · 07:15T. Kanka1.5011611113M. Taranko2.50611421WSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:45M. Taranko1.67571181Z. Kuksa2.1011119113WSep 19 · 08:43M. Taranko2.001111113Z. Kuksa1.739850LSep 19 · 07:45Z. Kuksa2.001113113M. Taranko1.7391190LSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880LSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 12 · 08:54D. Brichacek1.4081111113M. Taranko2.75119961WSep 12 · 07:15M. Taranko1.73711127113Z. Kuksa2.00116101172LSep 12 · 06:15M. Taranko2.633870D. Brichacek1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Merkl
M. Taranko
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